NEPatriots
7-2
42
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
020
INDColts
6-3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
7
14
14
42
Colts
3
7
3
7
20
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
58
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
503
322
Total Plays
74
56
Yards / Play
6.8
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.37
+0.01
Passing Yards
--
303
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.02
Rushing Yards
246
19
Rush Attempts
44
16
Yards / Rush
5.6
1.2
EPA / Rush
+0.30
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
33
17
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
17
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
82%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
5
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.71
-4.77
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
-0.79
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
53
27
Penalty EPA
-2.38
-3.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model54.9%
Spread Pick
Patriots+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,575
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+34.6
Away QB Adjustment
+28.7
Market Regression
+7.9
Final Difference
34.5
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+28.7
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+34.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
18
Yards / Game
10
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
3
Rushing Yards / Game
19
19
EPA
EPA / Play
1
11
EPA / Pass
4
5
EPA / Rush
5
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
6
25
Fumbles / Game
3
3
Turnover EPA / Game
30
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
3
4th Down Efficiency
3
5
RZ Efficiency
5
32
Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
8
Yards / Game
3
12
Passing Yards / Game
1
21
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13
EPA
EPA / Play
10
9
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
30
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
28
Interceptions / Game
24
10
Fumbles / Game
30
23
Turnover EPA / Game
5
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
12
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U