
NEPatriots
9-4
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
027
INDColts
7-6

TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
0
0
17
17
Colts
8
3
3
7
21
Spread

-1.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General


Total Yards
365
275
Total Plays
65
52
Yards / Play
5.6
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.08
Passing Yards
284
49
Comp/Att
26/45(58%)
5/12(42%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
4.1
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.66
Rushing Yards
81
226
Rush Attempts
19
39
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.17
Downs & Conversions


1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
15
3
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
40%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays


Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.50
-5.12
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-15
-8
Sack EPA
-1.72
-1.74
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
-5.38
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner

INDColtsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model47.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-48
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,638
Home Field
+18.9
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+10.7
Away Bye Adj
-28.9
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.5
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
-2.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-16.1
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks

M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.7

C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense


Total
Points / Game
7
11
Yards / Game
15
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
21
Rushing Yards / Game
8
12
EPA
EPA / Play
5
12
EPA / Pass
10
21
EPA / Rush
9
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
22
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
17
1
Turnover EPA / Game
6
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
18
4th Down Efficiency
1
18
RZ Efficiency
7
26
Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense


Total
Points / Game
8
3
Yards / Game
16
7
Passing Yards / Game
18
2
Rushing Yards / Game
2
24
EPA
EPA / Play
8
5
EPA / Pass
18
5
EPA / Rush
2
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
30
Interceptions / Game
4
2
Fumbles / Game
20
16
Turnover EPA / Game
28
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
9
4th Down Efficiency
6
16
RZ Efficiency
19
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

Patriots
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U

Colts
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U