NEPatriots
9-3
34
TBD
FedExField
40°F
027
WASCommanders
4-8
TBD
FedExField
40°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
8
6
14
0
28
Commanders
10
10
7
0
27
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
431
463
Total Plays
58
69
Yards / Play
7.4
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.11
Passing Yards
352
293
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.30
Rushing Yards
79
170
Rush Attempts
20
34
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
45%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
25%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.90
-9.17
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-8
Sack EPA
-1.49
-6.51
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
47
68
Penalty EPA
-6.74
-7.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-204
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,703
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.6
Home QB Adjustment
-6.7
Away QB Adjustment
+20.9
Market Regression
+33.0
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.9
R. Grossman
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
21
Yards / Game
2
12
Passing Yards / Game
2
21
Rushing Yards / Game
19
17
EPA
EPA / Play
1
20
EPA / Pass
3
19
EPA / Rush
4
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
12
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
17
4th Down Efficiency
2
12
RZ Efficiency
2
6
Commanders Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
11
Yards / Game
16
31
Passing Yards / Game
8
28
Rushing Yards / Game
27
19
EPA
EPA / Play
22
27
EPA / Pass
22
27
EPA / Rush
15
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
26
Interceptions / Game
29
4
Fumbles / Game
24
25
Turnover EPA / Game
6
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
28
4th Down Efficiency
29
17
RZ Efficiency
28
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U