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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ dolphins week 1, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NE logo
NEPatriots
-
38
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
11 mph
24
MIADolphins
-
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
7
14
10
38
Dolphins
7
0
10
7
24

Spread

NE logo
-7

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
622
488
Total Plays
71
73
Yards / Play
8.8
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.35
+0.10
Passing Yards
516
390
Comp/Att
32/48(67%)
30/49(61%)
Yards / Pass
10.8
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.51
+0.15
Rushing Yards
106
98
Rush Attempts
22
20
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
27
25
Passing 1st downs
20
19
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
62%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
6
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.70
-1.61
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-1
-26
Sack EPA
+0.28
-5.37
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
50
60
Penalty EPA
-5.16
-5.43

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-114
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,669
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.3
Home QB Adjustment
-8.5
Away QB Adjustment
+12.7
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
-145.7
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Value
Ptile
11/07
3.3
71
11/14
11.3
99
11/21
2.8
68
11/25
10.2
98
12/06
9.1
96
12/12
6.4
88
12/19
0.7
52
12/26
2.4
65
01/02
4.0
76
01/16
0.5
52
C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
Value
Ptile
10/17
3.2
71
10/24
1.9
60
10/31
-1.0
43
11/07
-5.3
16
11/28
0.0
49
12/05
-6.6
11
12/12
-9.9
4
12/19
2.2
63
12/26
-1.0
42
01/02
-9.7
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
3
6
Yards / Game
2
15
Passing Yards / Game
2
30
Rushing Yards / Game
19
4

EPA

EPA / Play
1
11
EPA / Pass
3
14
EPA / Rush
4
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
3
Interceptions / Game
11
17
Fumbles / Game
11
32
Turnover EPA / Game
30
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
4
4th Down Efficiency
2
23
RZ Efficiency
2
5
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
20
11
Yards / Game
23
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
28
Rushing Yards / Game
10
19

EPA

EPA / Play
18
27
EPA / Pass
17
27
EPA / Rush
20
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
26
Interceptions / Game
9
4
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
21
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
17
RZ Efficiency
24
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
-20
L
L
O
11/14
13
W
W
O
11/21
3
W
L
O
11/25
21
W
W
O
12/06
42
W
W
O
12/12
29
W
W
O
12/19
4
W
L
O
12/26
31
W
W
U
01/02
31
W
W
O
01/16
-7
L
L
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
8
W
W
U
11/07
-16
L
L
U
11/14
12
W
W
O
11/18
-16
L
L
U
11/28
16
W
W
O
12/05
-3
L
L
U
12/12
4
W
W
U
12/19
-3
L
L
U
12/26
-7
L
L
O
01/02
-31
L
L
O