NEPatriots
-
38
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
11 mph
24
MIADolphins
-
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
7
14
10
38
Dolphins
7
0
10
7
24
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
622
488
Total Plays
71
73
Yards / Play
8.8
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.35
+0.10
Passing Yards
516
390
Comp/Att
32/48(67%)
30/49(61%)
Yards / Pass
10.8
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.51
+0.15
Rushing Yards
106
98
Rush Attempts
22
20
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
25
Passing 1st downs
20
19
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
62%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.70
-1.61
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-1
-26
Sack EPA
+0.28
-5.37
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
50
60
Penalty EPA
-5.16
-5.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+7.0
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-113
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,668
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.3
Home QB Adjustment
-8.5
Away QB Adjustment
+12.7
Market Regression
-10.3
Final Difference
-145.3
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
6
Yards / Game
2
15
Passing Yards / Game
2
30
Rushing Yards / Game
19
4
EPA
EPA / Play
1
11
EPA / Pass
3
14
EPA / Rush
4
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
3
Interceptions / Game
11
17
Fumbles / Game
11
32
Turnover EPA / Game
30
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
4
4th Down Efficiency
2
23
RZ Efficiency
2
5
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
11
Yards / Game
23
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
28
Rushing Yards / Game
10
19
EPA
EPA / Play
18
27
EPA / Pass
17
27
EPA / Rush
20
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
26
Interceptions / Game
9
4
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
21
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
17
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U