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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ dolphins week 4, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NE logo
NEPatriots
2-1
41
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
15 mph
14
MIADolphins
2-1
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
6
21
2
29
Dolphins
7
0
7
0
14

Spread

NE logo
-1

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
265
400
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
4.5
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.30
Passing Yards
146
305
Comp/Att
19/24(79%)
31/45(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.14
Rushing Yards
119
95
Rush Attempts
32
20
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
45%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-19.28
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-7
-12
Sack EPA
-2.98
-3.00
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
31
40
Penalty EPA
-3.16
-4.75

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+9
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.8
Home QB Adjustment
-0.2
Away QB Adjustment
+14.7
Market Regression
-16.0
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
Value
Ptile
11/30
-2.1
38
12/06
4.8
81
12/13
-0.0
49
12/20
-2.8
32
12/27
10.5
98
01/03
-2.3
36
01/10
-6.6
12
09/12
8.9
96
09/19
0.0
49
09/26
7.9
93
C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
Value
Ptile
11/19
1.2
57
11/29
-5.2
19
12/06
2.9
69
12/13
-0.6
46
12/20
0.1
50
12/27
1.8
62
01/03
-1.4
40
09/12
-2.3
33
09/19
-2.9
30
09/26
4.3
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
7
6
Passing Yards / Game
23
7
Rushing Yards / Game
9
7

EPA

EPA / Play
1
15
EPA / Pass
2
24
EPA / Rush
2
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
11
Interceptions / Game
1
28
Fumbles / Game
2
17
Turnover EPA / Game
32
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
10
4th Down Efficiency
17
5
RZ Efficiency
9
2
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
30
8
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13

EPA

EPA / Play
25
20
EPA / Pass
20
15
EPA / Rush
26
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
24
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
15
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
25
RZ Efficiency
14
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
-21
L
L
U
12/06
-1
L
L
U
12/13
10
W
L
U
12/20
7
W
W
U
12/27
28
W
W
U
01/03
-7
L
W
O
01/10
-19
L
L
O
09/12
14
W
W
O
09/19
-14
L
L
O
09/26
8
W
L
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
7
W
W
U
11/29
-17
L
L
O
12/06
1
W
W
U
12/13
4
W
W
U
12/20
-3
L
W
O
12/27
-7
L
L
P
01/03
-6
L
L
O
09/12
5
W
W
U
09/19
4
W
W
U
09/26
-8
L
L
O