NEPatriots
2-1
41
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
15 mph
14
MIADolphins
2-1
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
6
21
2
29
Dolphins
7
0
7
0
14
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
400
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
4.5
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.30
Passing Yards
146
305
Comp/Att
19/24(79%)
31/45(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.14
Rushing Yards
119
95
Rush Attempts
32
20
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
45%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-19.28
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-7
-12
Sack EPA
-2.98
-3.00
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
31
40
Penalty EPA
-3.16
-4.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.8
Home QB Adjustment
-0.2
Away QB Adjustment
+14.7
Market Regression
-16.0
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
7
6
Passing Yards / Game
23
7
Rushing Yards / Game
9
7
EPA
EPA / Play
1
15
EPA / Pass
2
24
EPA / Rush
2
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
11
Interceptions / Game
1
28
Fumbles / Game
2
17
Turnover EPA / Game
32
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
10
4th Down Efficiency
17
5
RZ Efficiency
9
2
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
8
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13
EPA
EPA / Play
25
20
EPA / Pass
20
15
EPA / Rush
26
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
24
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
15
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
25
RZ Efficiency
14
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U