NEPatriots
7-4
21
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
5 mph
22
MIADolphins
5-6
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
7
7
0
21
Dolphins
0
10
9
3
22
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
448
416
Total Plays
54
81
Yards / Play
8.3
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.07
Passing Yards
--
328
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
29/53(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.15
Rushing Yards
96
88
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
13
21
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
19
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.82
-2.68
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-1.28
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
82
--
Penalty EPA
-3.12
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-138
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,670
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-41.9
Home QB Adjustment
-26.2
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
-8.0
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-26.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
4
21
Passing Yards / Game
17
29
Rushing Yards / Game
14
17
EPA
EPA / Play
6
28
EPA / Pass
9
21
EPA / Rush
11
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
18
30
Turnover EPA / Game
19
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
13
22
RZ Efficiency
11
8
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
17
9
Passing Yards / Game
23
18
Rushing Yards / Game
5
19
EPA
EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
19
14
EPA / Rush
3
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
29
Interceptions / Game
24
11
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
19
4th Down Efficiency
2
14
RZ Efficiency
5
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U