NE logo
NE
7-4
21
22
MIA
5-6
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
7
7
0
21
Dolphins
0
10
9
3
22

Spread

MIA logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
448
416
Total Plays
54
81
Yards / Play
8.3
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.07
Passing Yards
--
328
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
29/53(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.15
Rushing Yards
96
88
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
13
21
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
19
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.82
-2.68
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-1.28
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
82
--
Penalty EPA
-3.12
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-138
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,670
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-41.9
Home QB Adjustment
-26.2
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
-8.0
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
4
21
Passing Yards / Game
17
29
Rushing Yards / Game
14
17

EPA

EPA / Play
6
28
EPA / Pass
9
21
EPA / Rush
11
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
18
30
Turnover EPA / Game
19
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
13
22
RZ Efficiency
11
8
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
17
9
Passing Yards / Game
23
18
Rushing Yards / Game
5
19

EPA

EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
19
14
EPA / Rush
3
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
29
Interceptions / Game
24
11
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
19
4th Down Efficiency
2
14
RZ Efficiency
5
22