NEPatriots
8-3
23
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
18 mph
16
MIADolphins
5-6
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
10
0
6
23
Dolphins
3
7
0
6
16
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
321
277
Total Plays
76
59
Yards / Play
4.2
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.11
Passing Yards
213
176
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
13/29(45%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.16
Rushing Yards
108
101
Rush Attempts
32
27
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
15
Passing 1st downs
14
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
47%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.21
-4.23
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-25
-10
Sack EPA
-6.82
-6.58
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
50
77
Penalty EPA
-4.67
-12.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-204
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,686
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.0
Home QB Adjustment
-6.6
Away QB Adjustment
+23.4
Market Regression
+33.0
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+23.4
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
7
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
9
29
Rushing Yards / Game
7
12
EPA
EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
3
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
13
Interceptions / Game
5
27
Fumbles / Game
8
22
Turnover EPA / Game
26
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
9
4th Down Efficiency
5
28
RZ Efficiency
1
2
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
27
26
Passing Yards / Game
19
31
Rushing Yards / Game
17
8
EPA
EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
25
19
EPA / Rush
19
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
30
Interceptions / Game
10
6
Fumbles / Game
19
2
Turnover EPA / Game
11
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
20
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
11
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U