NEPatriots
10-3
20
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
14 mph
24
MIADolphins
7-6
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
7
0
10
20
Dolphins
0
7
3
14
24
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
453
378
Total Plays
78
64
Yards / Play
5.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.21
Passing Yards
357
289
Comp/Att
34/55(62%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.38
Rushing Yards
96
89
Rush Attempts
22
23
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
20
Passing 1st downs
19
16
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
53%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.35
-3.66
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-23
Sack EPA
-1.79
-4.95
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
21
Penalty EPA
--
-2.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model49.8%
Spread Pick
Patriots+2.5
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-37
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,601
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.5
Home QB Adjustment
+16.8
Away QB Adjustment
-2.7
Market Regression
+44.4
Final Difference
-1.7
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
6
20
Passing Yards / Game
10
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
24
EPA
EPA / Play
3
14
EPA / Pass
8
11
EPA / Rush
13
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
5
11
Fumbles / Game
16
30
Turnover EPA / Game
24
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
15
4th Down Efficiency
18
21
RZ Efficiency
8
5
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
10
Yards / Game
27
28
Passing Yards / Game
18
22
Rushing Yards / Game
26
28
EPA
EPA / Play
20
15
EPA / Pass
20
14
EPA / Rush
28
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
20
10
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
21
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
27
4th Down Efficiency
31
2
RZ Efficiency
11
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U