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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ dolphins week 15, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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NE logo
NEPatriots
6-7
12
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
9 mph
22
MIADolphins
8-5
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
6
3
3
12
Dolphins
0
0
7
15
22

Spread

MIA logo
+1

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
303
385
Total Plays
52
71
Yards / Play
5.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.13
Passing Yards
186
135
Comp/Att
17/27(63%)
20/27(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.07
Rushing Yards
117
250
Rush Attempts
22
42
Yards / Rush
5.3
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.37
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
15
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
22%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.80
-4.61
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-12
Sack EPA
-5.40
-2.95
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-4.31

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+3
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-29.1
Home QB Adjustment
-42.0
Away QB Adjustment
-12.9
Market Regression
-51.8
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.9
Value
Ptile
09/27
-5.0
15
10/18
-3.1
24
10/25
-10.1
3
11/01
1.4
53
11/09
6.0
83
11/15
1.3
53
11/22
1.7
56
11/29
-11.5
2
12/06
1.4
54
12/10
-8.3
6
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-42.0
Value
Ptile
11/01
-4.0
19
11/08
1.8
57
11/15
-0.8
39
11/22
-6.8
8
12/06
2.8
65
12/13
1.4
54

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
27
4
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
28
28
Rushing Yards / Game
3
16

EPA

EPA / Play
18
5
EPA / Pass
28
3
EPA / Rush
4
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
23
1
Fumbles / Game
5
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
9
RZ Efficiency
24
7
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
15
8
Yards / Game
23
14
Passing Yards / Game
17
7
Rushing Yards / Game
21
26

EPA

EPA / Play
17
18
EPA / Pass
17
16
EPA / Rush
25
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
12
31
Turnover EPA / Game
16
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
15
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
16
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
-16
L
L
U
10/18
-6
L
L
U
10/25
-27
L
L
U
11/01
-3
L
W
O
11/09
3
W
L
O
11/15
6
W
W
U
11/22
-7
L
L
U
11/29
3
W
W
U
12/06
45
W
W
U
12/10
-21
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-8
L
L
U
10/11
26
W
W
O
10/18
24
W
W
U
11/01
11
W
W
U
11/08
3
W
W
O
11/15
8
W
W
O
11/22
-7
L
L
U
11/29
17
W
W
U
12/06
12
W
W
U
12/13
-6
L
W
O