NEPatriots
6-7
12
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
9 mph
22
MIADolphins
8-5
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
6
3
3
12
Dolphins
0
0
7
15
22
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
385
Total Plays
52
71
Yards / Play
5.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.13
Passing Yards
186
135
Comp/Att
17/27(63%)
20/27(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.07
Rushing Yards
117
250
Rush Attempts
22
42
Yards / Rush
5.3
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.37
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
15
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
22%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.80
-4.61
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-12
Sack EPA
-5.40
-2.95
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-4.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-29.1
Home QB Adjustment
-42.0
Away QB Adjustment
-12.9
Market Regression
-59.0
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.9
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-42.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
4
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
28
28
Rushing Yards / Game
3
16
EPA
EPA / Play
18
5
EPA / Pass
28
3
EPA / Rush
4
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
23
1
Fumbles / Game
5
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
9
RZ Efficiency
24
7
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
8
Yards / Game
23
14
Passing Yards / Game
17
7
Rushing Yards / Game
21
26
EPA
EPA / Play
17
18
EPA / Pass
17
16
EPA / Rush
25
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
12
31
Turnover EPA / Game
16
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
15
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
16
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Dolphins
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U