NEPatriots
13-2
35
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
15 mph
14
MIADolphins
10-5
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
14
6
7
8
35
Dolphins
0
7
7
0
14
Spread
-8
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
280
Total Plays
63
57
Yards / Play
6.3
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.29
-0.18
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
25/34(74%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.07
Rushing Yards
120
75
Rush Attempts
29
23
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
58%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.09
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
64
73
Penalty EPA
-7.86
-4.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market76.2%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-189
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,681
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-105.7
Home QB Adjustment
-61.1
Away QB Adjustment
+44.7
Market Regression
-12.2
Final Difference
-202.2
Model Spread
+8.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+44.7
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-61.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
19
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
8
11
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31
EPA
EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
2
12
EPA / Rush
16
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
21
Interceptions / Game
1
7
Fumbles / Game
14
11
Turnover EPA / Game
31
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
20
RZ Efficiency
8
22
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
1
Yards / Game
25
8
Passing Yards / Game
32
6
Rushing Yards / Game
14
3
EPA
EPA / Play
21
5
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
19
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
20
12
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
13
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
4
4th Down Efficiency
32
7
RZ Efficiency
14
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
9-1
SU
8-1-1
ATS
8-2
O/U