NEPatriots
3-0
30
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
023
ATLFalcons
1-2
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
10
3
17
30
Falcons
3
7
0
13
23
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
448
457
Total Plays
62
71
Yards / Play
7.2
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.09
Passing Yards
--
399
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
34/54(63%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.63
+0.08
Rushing Yards
132
58
Rush Attempts
31
15
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
26
Passing 1st downs
14
20
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
54%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.83
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
--
-3.65
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
93
55
Penalty EPA
-10.24
-9.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model50.3%
Spread Pick
Patriots+3.0
Expected Value
+9.0%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-52
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,655
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.5
Home QB Adjustment
+16.3
Away QB Adjustment
-7.2
Market Regression
+21.8
Final Difference
2.1
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
27
Yards / Game
6
26
Passing Yards / Game
10
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31
EPA
EPA / Play
3
32
EPA / Pass
8
30
EPA / Rush
13
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
11
Interceptions / Game
5
29
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
24
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
32
4th Down Efficiency
18
27
RZ Efficiency
8
20
Falcons Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
10
Yards / Game
16
28
Passing Yards / Game
9
22
Rushing Yards / Game
32
28
EPA
EPA / Play
17
15
EPA / Pass
18
14
EPA / Rush
23
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
21
Interceptions / Game
19
10
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
21
2
RZ Efficiency
19
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U