NEPatriots
16-2
34
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
028
ATLFalcons
13-5
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Patriots
0
3
6
19
6
34
Falcons
0
15
7
0
0
22
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
57
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
550
344
Total Plays
94
46
Yards / Play
5.9
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.16
Passing Yards
442
240
Comp/Att
43/63(68%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
10.4
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.16
Rushing Yards
106
104
Rush Attempts
26
18
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
37
17
Passing 1st downs
26
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
50%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-15.11
-5.70
Sacks
5
5
Sack Yards
-24
-44
Sack EPA
-6.59
-13.52
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
23
65
Penalty EPA
-4.08
-10.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-30
Home nfelo
1,681
Away nfelo
1,704
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+39.1
Away QB Adjustment
+43.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+43.8
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+39.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
27
Yards / Game
4
27
Passing Yards / Game
8
31
Rushing Yards / Game
12
17
EPA
EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
2
22
EPA / Rush
16
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
11
Interceptions / Game
1
17
Fumbles / Game
14
15
Turnover EPA / Game
31
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
25
4th Down Efficiency
6
29
RZ Efficiency
8
32
Falcons Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
1
Yards / Game
2
8
Passing Yards / Game
2
6
Rushing Yards / Game
5
3
EPA
EPA / Play
1
5
EPA / Pass
1
8
EPA / Rush
4
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
27
Interceptions / Game
3
12
Fumbles / Game
4
10
Turnover EPA / Game
32
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
4
4th Down Efficiency
9
7
RZ Efficiency
9
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
9-1
O/U