NEPatriots
1-0
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
97°F
15 mph
31
JAXJaguars
1-0
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
97°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
7
10
20
Jaguars
14
7
3
7
31
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
302
480
Total Plays
61
69
Yards / Play
5.0
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.11
Passing Yards
220
--
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
29/45(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.31
Rushing Yards
82
104
Rush Attempts
24
24
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
27
Passing 1st downs
12
22
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
71%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.03
-8.92
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-6.35
--
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
25
71
Penalty EPA
-1.12
-5.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-18
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+76.4
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+9.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
4
Yards / Game
4
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
5
Rushing Yards / Game
5
20
EPA
EPA / Play
4
6
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
6
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
2
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
27
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
14
4th Down Efficiency
19
1
RZ Efficiency
10
4
Jaguars Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
6
Yards / Game
27
15
Passing Yards / Game
31
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
7
EPA
EPA / Play
30
7
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
23
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
32
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
32
14
Turnover EPA / Game
8
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
15
4th Down Efficiency
27
4
RZ Efficiency
31
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jaguars
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U