NEPatriots
10-4
24
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
65°F
7 mph
21
JAXJaguars
8-6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
65°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
10
7
7
24
Jaguars
0
7
7
7
21
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
339
Total Plays
70
46
Yards / Play
5.1
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.10
Passing Yards
242
195
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.19
Rushing Yards
117
144
Rush Attempts
30
22
Yards / Rush
3.9
6.5
EPA / Rush
+0.29
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-2.75
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.38
-2.75
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
51
60
Penalty EPA
-4.42
-5.04
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
4
Yards / Game
11
2
Passing Yards / Game
16
11
Rushing Yards / Game
14
4
EPA
EPA / Play
4
3
EPA / Pass
6
3
EPA / Rush
11
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
20
Interceptions / Game
10
6
Fumbles / Game
25
29
Turnover EPA / Game
27
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
1
1
RZ Efficiency
3
6
Jaguars Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
2
Yards / Game
10
10
Passing Yards / Game
17
30
Rushing Yards / Game
3
5
EPA
EPA / Play
11
6
EPA / Pass
17
5
EPA / Rush
2
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
24
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
2
12
Turnover EPA / Game
25
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
10
4th Down Efficiency
14
2
RZ Efficiency
9
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Jaguars
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
0-0-10
O/U