nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ jaguars week 16, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NE logo
NEPatriots
10-4
23
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
58°F
0
16
JAXJaguars
2-12
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
58°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
10
3
7
23
Jaguars
10
3
0
3
16

Spread

JAX logo
+14

Total

UNDER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
349
436
Total Plays
71
75
Yards / Play
4.9
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.04
Passing Yards
246
343
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
29/51(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.06
Rushing Yards
103
93
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
33%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.30
-8.88
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-21
-5
Sack EPA
-0.81
-1.44
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
39
47
Penalty EPA
-0.08
-5.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market87.0%
Model87.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-336
Home nfelo
1,279
Away nfelo
1,705
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.1
Home QB Adjustment
+15.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.9
Market Regression
-12.0
Final Difference
-330.2
Model Spread
+14.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
Value
Ptile
10/07
0.9
55
10/14
5.2
83
10/21
4.8
81
10/28
9.8
96
11/11
1.8
61
11/18
8.8
94
11/22
11.4
98
12/02
-4.6
20
12/10
9.1
94
12/16
2.9
69
C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Value
Ptile
12/26
-1.0
42
01/02
-9.7
4
09/12
9.1
96
09/18
-4.8
20
09/25
-1.5
40
10/02
-6.1
13
11/25
-5.4
16
12/02
-5.1
18
12/09
-9.0
4
12/16
-2.2
34

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Patriots logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
1
29
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
9
11
Rushing Yards / Game
7
30

EPA

EPA / Play
1
27
EPA / Pass
1
26
EPA / Rush
3
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
5
20
Fumbles / Game
8
16
Turnover EPA / Game
26
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
5
13
RZ Efficiency
1
15
Jaguars Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jaguars logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
30
10
Yards / Game
29
26
Passing Yards / Game
12
31
Rushing Yards / Game
30
8

EPA

EPA / Play
29
17
EPA / Pass
29
19
EPA / Rush
25
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
30
Interceptions / Game
22
6
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
20
4th Down Efficiency
30
13
RZ Efficiency
27
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
10
W
W
O
10/14
-1
L
L
O
10/21
3
W
L
O
10/28
38
W
W
O
11/11
6
W
L
O
11/18
35
W
W
O
11/22
30
W
W
O
12/02
7
W
P
U
12/10
28
W
W
O
12/16
-7
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
-38
L
L
O
10/21
-3
L
W
O
10/28
-9
L
W
U
11/04
-17
L
L
O
11/08
-17
L
L
U
11/18
-6
L
W
O
11/25
5
W
W
U
12/02
-16
L
L
O
12/09
-7
L
L
U
12/16
-21
L
L
U