NEPatriots
10-4
23
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
58°F
016
JAXJaguars
2-12
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
58°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
10
3
7
23
Jaguars
10
3
0
3
16
Spread
+14
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
436
Total Plays
71
75
Yards / Play
4.9
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.04
Passing Yards
246
343
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
29/51(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.06
Rushing Yards
103
93
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
33%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.30
-8.88
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-21
-5
Sack EPA
-0.81
-1.44
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
39
47
Penalty EPA
-0.08
-5.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.0%
Model87.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-333
Home nfelo
1,282
Away nfelo
1,704
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.1
Home QB Adjustment
+15.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.9
Market Regression
-12.0
Final Difference
-330.2
Model Spread
+14.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.9
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
29
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
9
11
Rushing Yards / Game
7
30
EPA
EPA / Play
1
27
EPA / Pass
1
26
EPA / Rush
3
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
5
20
Fumbles / Game
8
16
Turnover EPA / Game
26
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
5
13
RZ Efficiency
1
15
Jaguars Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
10
Yards / Game
29
26
Passing Yards / Game
12
31
Rushing Yards / Game
30
8
EPA
EPA / Play
29
17
EPA / Pass
29
19
EPA / Rush
25
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
30
Interceptions / Game
22
6
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
20
4th Down Efficiency
30
13
RZ Efficiency
27
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
9-1
O/U
Jaguars
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U