NEPatriots
1-0
9
TBD
Giants Stadium
69°F
5 mph
16
NYJJets
1-0
TBD
Giants Stadium
69°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
6
0
0
9
Jets
0
3
10
3
16
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
254
Total Plays
67
55
Yards / Play
4.5
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.09
Passing Yards
--
137
Comp/Att
23/47(49%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.10
Rushing Yards
83
117
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
33%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.08
-4.89
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-26
Sack EPA
--
-3.34
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
89
55
Penalty EPA
-7.47
-5.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-96
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-25.7
Home QB Adjustment
+2.3
Away QB Adjustment
+28.0
Market Regression
+35.3
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+28.0
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
1
Yards / Game
4
1
Passing Yards / Game
17
2
Rushing Yards / Game
14
7
EPA
EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
9
1
EPA / Rush
11
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
26
Interceptions / Game
15
14
Fumbles / Game
18
18
Turnover EPA / Game
19
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
3
RZ Efficiency
11
5
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
6
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
18
Rushing Yards / Game
1
19
EPA
EPA / Play
20
10
EPA / Pass
25
14
EPA / Rush
6
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
29
Interceptions / Game
27
11
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
21
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
14
RZ Efficiency
16
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
1-0-9
O/U
Jets
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
0-1-9
O/U