NEPatriots
1-0
14
TBD
MetLife Stadium
81°F
6 mph
28
NYJJets
0-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
81°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
14
0
0
14
Jets
0
10
11
7
28
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
291
338
Total Plays
57
66
Yards / Play
5.1
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.23
Passing Yards
239
202
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.33
Rushing Yards
52
136
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
45%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.87
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-20
Sack EPA
-6.20
-3.56
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
79
58
Penalty EPA
-6.03
-2.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.9
Home QB Adjustment
-11.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.5
Market Regression
-53.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-11.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
5
Yards / Game
7
3
Passing Yards / Game
23
20
Rushing Yards / Game
9
5
EPA
EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
2
9
EPA / Rush
2
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
29
Interceptions / Game
1
25
Fumbles / Game
2
4
Turnover EPA / Game
32
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
15
4th Down Efficiency
17
12
RZ Efficiency
9
25
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
8
Yards / Game
12
25
Passing Yards / Game
27
25
Rushing Yards / Game
4
13
EPA
EPA / Play
15
20
EPA / Pass
18
15
EPA / Rush
6
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
10
2
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
28
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
32
4th Down Efficiency
21
25
RZ Efficiency
28
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Jets
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U