NEPatriots
1-1
3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
75°F
5 mph
24
NYJJets
1-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
75°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
0
0
3
Jets
7
7
7
3
24
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
139
400
Total Plays
48
70
Yards / Play
2.9
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.15
Passing Yards
61
267
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
27/35(77%)
Yards / Pass
2.3
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.63
+0.52
Rushing Yards
78
133
Rush Attempts
15
33
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
27
Passing 1st downs
6
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
18%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
2
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.03
--
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-59
-14
Sack EPA
-15.03
-2.57
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
70
106
Penalty EPA
-5.75
-11.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model68.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+25.7
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
-21.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.2
Home QB Adjustment
+21.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
138.0
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
19
Yards / Game
31
5
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
14
17
EPA
EPA / Play
28
24
EPA / Pass
27
19
EPA / Rush
25
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
29
7
Turnover EPA / Game
9
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
30
19
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
21
Yards / Game
24
21
Passing Yards / Game
5
1
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22
EPA
EPA / Play
19
26
EPA / Pass
18
30
EPA / Rush
21
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
6
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
27
4th Down Efficiency
28
11
RZ Efficiency
21
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U