NEPatriots
3-2
24
TBD
MetLife Stadium
73°F
13 mph
17
NYJJets
3-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
73°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
14
7
3
24
Jets
7
7
0
3
17
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
408
Total Plays
63
75
Yards / Play
6.0
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
334
Comp/Att
20/38(53%)
31/47(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.05
Rushing Yards
118
74
Rush Attempts
25
24
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
54%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.94
-11.93
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-4.05
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
45
69
Penalty EPA
-6.28
-7.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-248
Home nfelo
1,388
Away nfelo
1,647
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.4
Home QB Adjustment
-3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+17.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-231.2
Model Spread
+9.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.2
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
22
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
2
5
Rushing Yards / Game
15
24
EPA
EPA / Play
1
22
EPA / Pass
1
22
EPA / Rush
8
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
7
Interceptions / Game
2
18
Fumbles / Game
6
8
Turnover EPA / Game
31
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
10
4th Down Efficiency
4
14
RZ Efficiency
3
21
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
7
Yards / Game
28
30
Passing Yards / Game
22
28
Rushing Yards / Game
19
20
EPA
EPA / Play
23
26
EPA / Pass
18
24
EPA / Rush
23
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
21
Interceptions / Game
13
22
Fumbles / Game
23
30
Turnover EPA / Game
20
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
22
4th Down Efficiency
8
17
RZ Efficiency
10
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U