NEPatriots
6-0
33
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
00
NYJJets
1-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
17
7
0
7
31
Jets
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-9.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
154
Total Plays
79
53
Yards / Play
4.1
2.9
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.66
Passing Yards
--
73
Comp/Att
31/45(69%)
11/32(34%)
Yards / Pass
--
2.3
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.99
Rushing Yards
74
81
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
12
4
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
44%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
5
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-0.59
-21.58
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-6.10
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
92
60
Penalty EPA
-9.72
-11.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model81.2%
Spread Pick
Patriots-9.5
Expected Value
+11.4%
Cover Probability
58.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-291
Home nfelo
1,348
Away nfelo
1,722
Home Field
+48.0
Base HFA
+53.5
Divisional Adj
-24.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+34.9
Home QB Adjustment
+42.5
Away QB Adjustment
+7.6
Market Regression
-2.2
Final Difference
-254.2
Model Spread
+10.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.6
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
+42.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
16
Yards / Game
14
7
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2
EPA
EPA / Play
16
9
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
15
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
4
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
15
20
Turnover EPA / Game
28
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
15
4th Down Efficiency
26
2
RZ Efficiency
26
13
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
1
Yards / Game
32
1
Passing Yards / Game
19
4
Rushing Yards / Game
31
8
EPA
EPA / Play
32
1
EPA / Pass
31
1
EPA / Rush
31
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
29
Interceptions / Game
23
1
Fumbles / Game
18
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
21
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U