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  1. nfelo...
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  3. patriots @ jets week 10, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NE logo
NEPatriots
5-3
37
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
12 mph
16
NYJJets
5-3
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
6
7
10
8
31
Jets
0
7
0
7
14

Spread

NE logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
389
378
Total Plays
67
69
Yards / Play
5.8
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.14
Passing Yards
--
268
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
20/39(51%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.50
-0.39
Rushing Yards
60
110
Rush Attempts
28
25
Yards / Rush
2.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.33
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.97
-11.70
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-38
Sack EPA
--
-8.21
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
80
56
Penalty EPA
-1.76
-5.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model50.5%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,623
Away nfelo
1,683
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.3
Home QB Adjustment
+5.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.6
Market Regression
+4.9
Final Difference
3.3
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.6
Value
Ptile
01/02
4.0
76
01/16
0.5
52
09/12
13.5
99
09/18
12.5
98
09/25
5.3
83
10/02
1.6
63
10/09
2.4
68
10/16
0.6
57
10/30
2.2
66
11/06
1.0
60
M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
Value
Ptile
01/16
5.5
85
01/23
3.9
75
09/11
0.4
55
09/18
0.3
54
09/25
4.0
76
10/02
-10.3
2
10/09
-0.5
48
10/17
1.8
65
10/23
1.2
61
11/06
0.3
54

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Patriots logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
3
19
Yards / Game
2
4
Passing Yards / Game
2
7
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14

EPA

EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
3
4
EPA / Rush
4
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
11
9
Fumbles / Game
11
2
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
2
4th Down Efficiency
2
1
RZ Efficiency
2
9
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jets logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
12
11
Yards / Game
26
31
Passing Yards / Game
18
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
19

EPA

EPA / Play
21
27
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
13
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
23
4
Fumbles / Game
29
25
Turnover EPA / Game
2
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
17
RZ Efficiency
4
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
31
W
W
O
01/16
-7
L
L
O
09/12
14
W
W
O
09/18
14
W
W
O
09/25
-3
L
L
O
10/02
12
W
W
U
10/09
9
W
W
O
10/16
4
W
L
U
10/30
-8
L
L
U
11/06
-4
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/16
7
W
W
O
01/23
-5
L
L
O
09/11
3
W
L
O
09/18
29
W
W
U
09/25
-10
L
L
O
10/02
-17
L
L
O
10/09
-9
L
L
O
10/17
18
W
W
U
10/23
6
W
W
O
11/06
16
W
W
U