NEPatriots
5-3
37
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
12 mph
16
NYJJets
5-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
6
7
10
8
31
Jets
0
7
0
7
14
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
378
Total Plays
67
69
Yards / Play
5.8
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.14
Passing Yards
--
268
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
20/39(51%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.50
-0.39
Rushing Yards
60
110
Rush Attempts
28
25
Yards / Rush
2.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.33
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.97
-11.70
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-38
Sack EPA
--
-8.21
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
80
56
Penalty EPA
-1.76
-5.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model50.7%
Spread Pick
Patriots+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,627
Away nfelo
1,683
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.3
Home QB Adjustment
+5.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.6
Market Regression
+5.4
Final Difference
5.0
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.6
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
19
Yards / Game
2
4
Passing Yards / Game
2
7
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
3
4
EPA / Rush
4
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
11
9
Fumbles / Game
11
2
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
2
4th Down Efficiency
2
1
RZ Efficiency
2
9
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
11
Yards / Game
26
31
Passing Yards / Game
18
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
19
EPA
EPA / Play
21
27
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
13
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
23
4
Fumbles / Game
29
25
Turnover EPA / Game
2
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
17
RZ Efficiency
4
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U