NEPatriots
11-3
17
TBD
MetLife Stadium
34°F
9 mph
16
NYJJets
3-11
TBD
MetLife Stadium
34°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
7
3
7
17
Jets
0
10
3
3
16
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
231
307
Total Plays
63
61
Yards / Play
3.7
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.16
Passing Yards
146
191
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.08
Rushing Yards
85
116
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
46%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.80
-3.70
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-36
-19
Sack EPA
-6.00
-4.24
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
38
14
Penalty EPA
-3.08
-1.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model80.8%
Spread Pick
Patriots-10.0
Expected Value
+3.8%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-282
Home nfelo
1,406
Away nfelo
1,689
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-33.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.1
Away QB Adjustment
+24.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-250.2
Model Spread
+10.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.4
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-9.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
24
Yards / Game
10
7
Passing Yards / Game
10
30
Rushing Yards / Game
19
5
EPA
EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
4
24
EPA / Rush
5
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
8
Interceptions / Game
6
30
Fumbles / Game
3
21
Turnover EPA / Game
30
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
30
4th Down Efficiency
3
1
RZ Efficiency
5
27
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
23
21
Rushing Yards / Game
3
13
EPA
EPA / Play
24
9
EPA / Pass
29
11
EPA / Rush
10
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
28
Interceptions / Game
17
10
Fumbles / Game
10
23
Turnover EPA / Game
15
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
13
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
32
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jets
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U