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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ jets week 17, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NE logo
NEPatriots
12-3
42
TBD
MetLife Stadium
29°F
4 mph
10
NYJJets
3-12
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
29°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
14
21
7
0
42
Jets
0
3
0
7
10

Spread

NE logo
-13

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
440
307
Total Plays
62
63
Yards / Play
7.1
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.48
-0.12
Passing Yards
285
143
Comp/Att
22/25(88%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
11.4
4.2
EPA / Pass
+1.12
-0.36
Rushing Yards
155
164
Rush Attempts
36
28
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
28
14
Passing 1st downs
16
6
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
44%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
5
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.52
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-1
-12
Sack EPA
-0.77
-0.55
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
20
53
Penalty EPA
-1.78
-5.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0

Win Probability

Market85.2%
Model85.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-311
Home nfelo
1,309
Away nfelo
1,547
Home Field
+24.4
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-98.2
Home QB Adjustment
-77.7
Away QB Adjustment
+20.5
Market Regression
+14.2
Final Difference
-304.1
Model Spread
+13.0

Quarterbacks

D. Maye headshot

D. Maye

Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Value
Ptile
10/12
5.6
87
10/19
5.8
88
10/26
2.9
72
11/02
-3.9
24
11/09
-1.1
41
11/13
3.3
74
11/23
0.5
55
12/01
2.9
72
12/14
0.6
56
12/21
4.4
80
B. Cook headshot

B. Cook

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-77.7
Value
Ptile
12/14
-6.2
12
12/21
-10.9
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Patriots logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
5
30
Yards / Game
4
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
15
Rushing Yards / Game
13
27

EPA

EPA / Play
4
30
EPA / Pass
1
31
EPA / Rush
23
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
2
Interceptions / Game
7
32
Fumbles / Game
21
29
Turnover EPA / Game
21
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
10
4th Down Efficiency
1
32
RZ Efficiency
22
24
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jets logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
28
7
Passing Yards / Game
32
19
Rushing Yards / Game
7
8

EPA

EPA / Play
27
9
EPA / Pass
29
11
EPA / Rush
24
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
7
Interceptions / Game
23
19
Fumbles / Game
28
12
Turnover EPA / Game
10
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
12
4th Down Efficiency
28
2
RZ Efficiency
31
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
6
W
W
U
10/19
18
W
W
O
10/26
19
W
W
O
11/02
1
W
L
O
11/09
5
W
W
O
11/13
13
W
W
U
11/23
6
W
L
U
12/01
18
W
W
O
12/14
-4
L
L
O
12/21
4
W
W
O
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
-2
L
W
U
10/19
-7
L
L
U
10/26
1
W
W
O
11/09
7
W
W
O
11/13
-13
L
L
U
11/23
-13
L
W
U
11/30
3
W
W
O
12/07
-24
L
L
O
12/14
-28
L
L
O
12/21
-23
L
L
U