NEPatriots
4-4
24
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
61°F
16 mph
6
CARPanthers
4-4
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
61°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
14
4
0
18
Panthers
0
6
0
0
6
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
273
240
Total Plays
59
57
Yards / Play
4.6
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.54
Passing Yards
122
162
Comp/Att
12/18(67%)
16/33(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.74
Rushing Yards
151
78
Rush Attempts
39
23
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
13
Passing 1st downs
5
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
43%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.79
-20.56
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
-10
Sack EPA
-6.40
-2.12
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
--
83
Penalty EPA
--
-9.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-43
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+54.7
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.5
Home QB Adjustment
-21.7
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-21.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
20
Yards / Game
15
2
Passing Yards / Game
12
1
Rushing Yards / Game
8
18
EPA
EPA / Play
5
7
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
9
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
6
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
8
4th Down Efficiency
1
18
RZ Efficiency
7
31
Panthers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
3
Yards / Game
30
7
Passing Yards / Game
29
2
Rushing Yards / Game
20
24
EPA
EPA / Play
32
5
EPA / Pass
32
5
EPA / Rush
17
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
30
Interceptions / Game
32
2
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
1
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
9
4th Down Efficiency
31
16
RZ Efficiency
25
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Panthers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U