NEPatriots
7-2
20
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
59°F
8 mph
24
CARPanthers
6-3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
59°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
7
10
20
Panthers
7
3
7
7
24
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
300
Total Plays
67
54
Yards / Play
5.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.30
Passing Yards
283
197
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.41
Rushing Yards
107
103
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
20
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
50%
73%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.48
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-12
Sack EPA
-3.78
-2.39
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
50
47
Penalty EPA
-7.41
-6.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+26
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,629
Home Field
+35.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.8
Home QB Adjustment
-8.0
Away QB Adjustment
-23.8
Market Regression
+50.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-23.8
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
2
Yards / Game
6
3
Passing Yards / Game
10
17
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3
EPA
EPA / Play
3
6
EPA / Pass
8
5
EPA / Rush
13
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
9
Interceptions / Game
5
8
Fumbles / Game
16
9
Turnover EPA / Game
24
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
12
4th Down Efficiency
18
1
RZ Efficiency
8
3
Panthers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
10
Yards / Game
26
28
Passing Yards / Game
25
22
Rushing Yards / Game
12
28
EPA
EPA / Play
13
15
EPA / Pass
15
14
EPA / Rush
5
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
21
Interceptions / Game
14
10
Fumbles / Game
1
22
Turnover EPA / Game
30
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
27
4th Down Efficiency
2
2
RZ Efficiency
15
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U