NEPatriots
2-1
31
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
71°F
6 mph
19
OAKRaiders
2-1
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
71°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
10
7
7
31
Raiders
3
7
3
6
19
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
409
504
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
6.7
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.39
+0.13
Passing Yards
226
--
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.09
Rushing Yards
183
160
Rush Attempts
30
27
Yards / Rush
6.1
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
24
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
11
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
44%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
75%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-11.16
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
-0.92
--
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
45
85
Penalty EPA
-5.78
-8.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model69.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-108
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,686
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-19.7
Home QB Adjustment
+12.8
Away QB Adjustment
+32.6
Market Regression
-1.6
Final Difference
-139.4
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+32.6
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
29
Yards / Game
2
29
Passing Yards / Game
2
16
Rushing Yards / Game
19
27
EPA
EPA / Play
1
30
EPA / Pass
3
25
EPA / Rush
4
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
30
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
11
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
25
4th Down Efficiency
2
5
RZ Efficiency
2
23
Raiders Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
11
Yards / Game
9
31
Passing Yards / Game
26
28
Rushing Yards / Game
6
19
EPA
EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
13
27
EPA / Rush
8
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
26
Interceptions / Game
27
4
Fumbles / Game
6
25
Turnover EPA / Game
11
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
8
17
RZ Efficiency
23
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
9-1
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U