NEPatriots
7-2
33
TBD
Azteca Stadium
66°F
08
OAKRaiders
4-5
TBD
Azteca Stadium
66°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
10
13
3
33
Raiders
0
0
0
8
8
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
421
346
Total Plays
58
72
Yards / Play
7.3
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.47
-0.02
Passing Yards
332
237
Comp/Att
30/37(81%)
28/50(56%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.53
-0.08
Rushing Yards
89
109
Rush Attempts
20
21
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
21
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.42
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-2
Sack EPA
-1.41
-0.76
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
--
66
Penalty EPA
--
-9.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model70.7%
Spread Pick
Raiders+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-119
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,664
Home Field
+55.6
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
+20.1
Net QB Adjustment
-3.7
Home QB Adjustment
+10.5
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
-18.2
Final Difference
-153.1
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
2
23
Rushing Yards / Game
15
11
EPA
EPA / Play
1
31
EPA / Pass
1
31
EPA / Rush
8
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
30
Interceptions / Game
2
32
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
30
RZ Efficiency
3
8
Raiders Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
7
Yards / Game
18
30
Passing Yards / Game
30
28
Rushing Yards / Game
25
20
EPA
EPA / Play
15
26
EPA / Pass
16
24
EPA / Rush
22
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
21
Interceptions / Game
20
22
Fumbles / Game
31
30
Turnover EPA / Game
13
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
22
4th Down Efficiency
27
17
RZ Efficiency
8
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U