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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ raiders week 11, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NE logo
NEPatriots
7-2
33
TBD
Azteca Stadium
66°F
0
8
OAKRaiders
4-5
OAK logo
TBD
Azteca Stadium
66°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
10
13
3
33
Raiders
0
0
0
8
8

Spread

NE logo
-7

Total

UNDER
55

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
421
346
Total Plays
58
72
Yards / Play
7.3
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.47
-0.02
Passing Yards
332
237
Comp/Att
30/37(81%)
28/50(56%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.53
-0.08
Rushing Yards
89
109
Rush Attempts
20
21
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
25
21
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.42
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-2
Sack EPA
-1.41
-0.76
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
--
66
Penalty EPA
--
-9.43

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-114
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,662
Home Field
+56.4
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
+20.3
Net QB Adjustment
-3.7
Home QB Adjustment
+10.5
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
-10.9
Final Difference
-145.8
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Value
Ptile
02/05
5.5
84
09/07
-4.8
20
09/17
10.5
98
09/24
9.3
96
10/01
4.5
82
10/05
0.6
56
10/15
0.5
55
10/22
2.7
71
10/29
3.6
78
11/12
7.0
90
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Value
Ptile
12/18
-2.8
28
12/24
5.1
83
09/10
2.9
73
09/17
7.3
91
09/24
-9.3
4
10/01
-2.7
34
10/15
-3.2
30
10/19
9.7
97
10/29
1.0
60
11/05
0.7
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Raiders Defense
Patriots logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
1
24
Passing Yards / Game
2
23
Rushing Yards / Game
15
11

EPA

EPA / Play
1
31
EPA / Pass
1
31
EPA / Rush
8
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
30
Interceptions / Game
2
32
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
30
RZ Efficiency
3
8
Raiders Offense vs Patriots Defense
Raiders logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
22
7
Yards / Game
18
30
Passing Yards / Game
30
28
Rushing Yards / Game
25
20

EPA

EPA / Play
15
26
EPA / Pass
16
24
EPA / Rush
22
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
21
Interceptions / Game
20
22
Fumbles / Game
31
30
Turnover EPA / Game
13
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
22
4th Down Efficiency
27
17
RZ Efficiency
8
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
02/05
6
W
W
O
09/07
-15
L
L
O
09/17
16
W
W
O
09/24
3
W
L
O
10/01
-3
L
L
O
10/05
5
W
W
U
10/15
7
W
L
U
10/22
16
W
W
U
10/29
8
W
W
U
11/12
25
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
-13
L
L
O
09/10
10
W
W
U
09/17
25
W
W
O
09/24
-17
L
L
U
10/01
-6
L
L
U
10/08
-13
L
L
O
10/15
-1
L
L
U
10/19
1
W
W
O
10/29
-20
L
L
O
11/05
3
W
P
O