NEPatriots
6-6
3
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
024
LARRams
8-4
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
0
0
3
Rams
10
1
7
0
18
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
220
318
Total Plays
58
62
Yards / Play
3.8
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.53
-0.11
Passing Yards
113
132
Comp/Att
14/23(61%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
5.3
EPA / Pass
-1.08
-0.18
Rushing Yards
107
186
Rush Attempts
29
36
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
17
Passing 1st downs
4
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
23%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.19
-4.80
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-33
-5
Sack EPA
-9.29
-1.05
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
27
--
Penalty EPA
-4.12
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+11.8
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
+13.2
Home QB Adjustment
+9.7
Away QB Adjustment
-3.5
Market Regression
+4.5
Final Difference
113.5
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
2
Yards / Game
26
1
Passing Yards / Game
28
3
Rushing Yards / Game
3
4
EPA
EPA / Play
18
1
EPA / Pass
28
1
EPA / Rush
4
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
23
Interceptions / Game
23
13
Fumbles / Game
5
16
Turnover EPA / Game
13
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
4
4th Down Efficiency
23
7
RZ Efficiency
24
12
Rams Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
8
Yards / Game
17
14
Passing Yards / Game
16
7
Rushing Yards / Game
11
26
EPA
EPA / Play
26
18
EPA / Pass
20
16
EPA / Rush
24
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
14
Interceptions / Game
16
1
Fumbles / Game
19
31
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
18
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Rams
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U