NEPatriots
0-1
36
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
020
NOSaints
0-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
20
10
3
3
36
Saints
3
10
0
7
20
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
555
429
Total Plays
72
63
Yards / Play
7.7
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.31
-0.00
Passing Yards
436
348
Comp/Att
30/39(77%)
27/45(60%)
Yards / Pass
11.2
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.64
+0.06
Rushing Yards
119
81
Rush Attempts
31
17
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
20
Passing 1st downs
19
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
43%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-11
-8
Sack EPA
-3.19
-2.77
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
66
35
Penalty EPA
-6.05
-5.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-117
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,648
Home Field
+47.2
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+2.8
Home QB Adjustment
+11.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.4
Market Regression
-25.6
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
14
Yards / Game
1
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
32
Rushing Yards / Game
15
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
15
EPA / Pass
1
14
EPA / Rush
8
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
31
Interceptions / Game
2
4
Fumbles / Game
6
27
Turnover EPA / Game
31
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
27
4th Down Efficiency
4
10
RZ Efficiency
3
14
Saints Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
7
Yards / Game
2
30
Passing Yards / Game
6
28
Rushing Yards / Game
6
20
EPA
EPA / Play
2
26
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
3
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
21
Interceptions / Game
6
22
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
1
17
RZ Efficiency
6
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U