NEPatriots
7-3
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
038
NOSaints
10-0
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
3
7
0
17
Saints
3
21
7
7
38
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
57
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
366
480
Total Plays
70
50
Yards / Play
5.2
9.6
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.37
Passing Yards
244
367
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
18/23(78%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
16.0
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+1.02
Rushing Yards
122
113
Rush Attempts
28
26
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.27
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
31%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.30
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-4
Sack EPA
-2.78
-1.10
Penalties
--
4
Penalty Yards
--
36
Penalty EPA
--
-4.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,691
Away nfelo
1,682
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-20.5
Home QB Adjustment
+5.4
Away QB Adjustment
+25.9
Market Regression
-13.3
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+25.9
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
18
Yards / Game
4
28
Passing Yards / Game
17
21
Rushing Yards / Game
14
22
EPA
EPA / Play
6
11
EPA / Pass
9
7
EPA / Rush
11
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
15
3
Fumbles / Game
18
4
Turnover EPA / Game
19
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
15
4th Down Efficiency
13
9
RZ Efficiency
11
3
Saints Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
6
Yards / Game
1
9
Passing Yards / Game
16
18
Rushing Yards / Game
10
19
EPA
EPA / Play
2
10
EPA / Pass
2
14
EPA / Rush
7
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
29
Interceptions / Game
5
11
Fumbles / Game
28
27
Turnover EPA / Game
30
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
4
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Saints
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U