NEPatriots
2-10
21
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
42°F
5 mph
18
PITSteelers
7-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
42°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
14
0
0
21
Steelers
3
7
0
8
18
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
30
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
266
Total Plays
55
67
Yards / Play
5.5
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.22
Passing Yards
222
184
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.42
Rushing Yards
81
82
Rush Attempts
25
28
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
18
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
31%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.07
-5.05
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-8
Sack EPA
-3.13
-4.38
Penalties
7
1
Penalty Yards
59
--
Penalty EPA
-6.71
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
Steelers-5.5
Expected Value
+3.8%
Cover Probability
54.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+195
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,416
Home Field
+61.1
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+46.0
Home QB Adjustment
+26.9
Away QB Adjustment
-19.1
Market Regression
+3.1
Final Difference
155.6
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Zappe
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-19.1
Value
Ptile
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+26.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
8
Yards / Game
30
21
Passing Yards / Game
31
23
Rushing Yards / Game
25
21
EPA
EPA / Play
32
10
EPA / Pass
31
10
EPA / Rush
22
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
25
Interceptions / Game
30
13
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
21
4th Down Efficiency
32
11
RZ Efficiency
11
6
Steelers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
14
Yards / Game
25
6
Passing Yards / Game
26
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3
EPA
EPA / Play
25
6
EPA / Pass
24
20
EPA / Rush
20
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
9
Interceptions / Game
5
23
Fumbles / Game
8
26
Turnover EPA / Game
27
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
20
RZ Efficiency
25
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
2-8
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
1-9
O/U