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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ steelers week 14, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NE logo
NEPatriots
2-10
21
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
42°F
5 mph
18
PITSteelers
7-5
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
42°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
14
0
0
21
Steelers
3
7
0
8
18

Spread

NE logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
30

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
303
266
Total Plays
55
67
Yards / Play
5.5
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.22
Passing Yards
222
184
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.42
Rushing Yards
81
82
Rush Attempts
25
28
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
14
18
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
31%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.07
-5.05
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-8
Sack EPA
-3.13
-4.38
Penalties
7
1
Penalty Yards
59
--
Penalty EPA
-6.71
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model69.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+191
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,416
Home Field
+61.1
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+46.0
Home QB Adjustment
+26.9
Away QB Adjustment
-19.1
Market Regression
+1.9
Final Difference
143.3
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

B. Zappe headshot

B. Zappe

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-19.1
Value
Ptile
10/09
-1.8
39
10/16
4.3
83
12/03
-8.4
7
M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+26.9
Value
Ptile
12/13
3.3
68
12/20
-0.1
45
12/27
2.2
60
01/03
2.9
66
01/10
1.4
54
09/11
-1.7
40
09/18
-3.9
24
09/22
1.2
60
10/02
-11.2
1
12/18
1.0
60

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Steelers Defense
Patriots logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
8
Yards / Game
30
21
Passing Yards / Game
31
23
Rushing Yards / Game
25
21

EPA

EPA / Play
32
10
EPA / Pass
31
10
EPA / Rush
22
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
25
Interceptions / Game
30
13
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
21
4th Down Efficiency
32
11
RZ Efficiency
11
6
Steelers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Steelers logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
28
14
Yards / Game
25
6
Passing Yards / Game
26
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3

EPA

EPA / Play
25
6
EPA / Pass
24
20
EPA / Rush
20
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
9
Interceptions / Game
5
23
Fumbles / Game
8
26
Turnover EPA / Game
27
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
20
RZ Efficiency
25
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
5
W
W
U
10/01
-35
L
L
U
10/08
-34
L
L
U
10/15
-4
L
L
U
10/22
4
W
W
O
10/29
-14
L
L
O
11/05
-3
L
L
U
11/12
-4
L
L
U
11/26
-3
L
L
U
12/03
-6
L
L
U
PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
5
W
W
U
10/01
-24
L
L
U
10/08
7
W
W
U
10/22
7
W
W
U
10/29
-10
L
L
U
11/02
4
W
W
U
11/12
4
W
W
O
11/19
-3
L
L
U
11/26
6
W
W
U
12/03
-14
L
L
U