NEPatriots
1-3
25
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
022
HOUTexans
1-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
9
6
10
25
Texans
6
9
7
0
22
Spread
+8
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
360
Total Plays
61
56
Yards / Play
5.8
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.00
Passing Yards
226
293
Comp/Att
23/30(77%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
10.1
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.61
Rushing Yards
126
67
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
55%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.18
-0.06
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-5
-19
Sack EPA
-1.06
-3.77
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
27
70
Penalty EPA
-4.22
-8.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market76.2%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-233
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+34.5
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-134.2
Home QB Adjustment
-143.3
Away QB Adjustment
-9.1
Market Regression
+20.8
Final Difference
-202.2
Model Spread
+8.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.1
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-143.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
27
Yards / Game
15
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
26
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31
EPA
EPA / Play
5
26
EPA / Pass
10
26
EPA / Rush
9
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
9
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
6
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
7
20
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
3
Yards / Game
32
7
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24
EPA
EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
28
5
EPA / Rush
30
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
21
2
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
22
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
9
4th Down Efficiency
27
16
RZ Efficiency
27
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Texans
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U