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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ texans week 11, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NE logo
NEPatriots
4-5
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
27
HOUTexans
2-7
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
3
7
3
20
Texans
7
14
3
3
27

Spread

HOU logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
435
399
Total Plays
66
56
Yards / Play
6.6
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.23
Passing Yards
349
--
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
28/37(76%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.54
Rushing Yards
86
55
Rush Attempts
24
19
Yards / Rush
3.6
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
54%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-2.97
--
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
55
--
Penalty EPA
-4.69
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-80
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+5.1
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+6.7
Home QB Adjustment
+13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
Value
Ptile
09/08
-4.7
21
09/12
-4.5
22
09/13
4.3
75
09/20
10.2
96
09/27
-5.0
15
10/18
-3.1
24
10/25
-10.1
3
11/01
1.4
53
11/09
6.0
83
11/15
1.3
53
D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
Value
Ptile
01/12
6.7
89
09/10
-0.0
46
09/20
-0.1
45
09/27
-0.3
44
10/04
1.8
57
10/11
5.4
80
10/18
9.9
96
10/25
6.5
86
11/08
2.5
63
11/15
-1.0
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Patriots logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
27
27
Yards / Game
26
30
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
32

EPA

EPA / Play
18
31
EPA / Pass
28
31
EPA / Rush
4
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
2
Interceptions / Game
23
32
Fumbles / Game
5
18
Turnover EPA / Game
13
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
29
4th Down Efficiency
23
14
RZ Efficiency
24
24
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Texans logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
11
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
7
Rushing Yards / Game
31
26

EPA

EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
23
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
14
Interceptions / Game
2
1
Fumbles / Game
20
31
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
15
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
25
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/04
-7
L
L
U
09/13
10
W
W
U
09/20
-5
L
L
O
09/27
16
W
W
O
10/05
-16
L
L
U
10/18
-6
L
L
U
10/25
-27
L
L
U
11/01
-3
L
W
O
11/09
3
W
L
O
11/15
6
W
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/12
-20
L
L
O
09/10
-14
L
L
O
09/20
-17
L
L
U
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-8
L
L
O
10/11
16
W
W
U
10/18
-6
L
L
O
10/25
-15
L
L
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/15
-3
L
W
U