NEPatriots
4-5
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
027
HOUTexans
2-7
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
3
7
3
20
Texans
7
14
3
3
27
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
435
399
Total Plays
66
56
Yards / Play
6.6
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.23
Passing Yards
349
--
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
28/37(76%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.54
Rushing Yards
86
55
Rush Attempts
24
19
Yards / Rush
3.6
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
54%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-2.97
--
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
55
--
Penalty EPA
-4.69
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-79
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+5.1
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+6.7
Home QB Adjustment
+13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
27
Yards / Game
26
30
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
32
EPA
EPA / Play
18
31
EPA / Pass
28
31
EPA / Rush
4
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
2
Interceptions / Game
23
32
Fumbles / Game
5
18
Turnover EPA / Game
13
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
29
4th Down Efficiency
23
14
RZ Efficiency
24
24
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
11
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
7
Rushing Yards / Game
31
26
EPA
EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
23
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
14
Interceptions / Game
2
1
Fumbles / Game
20
31
Turnover EPA / Game
27
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
15
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
25
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U