NEPatriots
8-3
34
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
031
HOUTexans
2-9
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
0
14
13
34
Texans
10
7
7
7
31
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
453
385
Total Plays
69
59
Yards / Play
6.6
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.19
Passing Yards
365
264
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
15/30(50%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.12
Rushing Yards
88
121
Rush Attempts
27
28
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
19
Passing 1st downs
20
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
42%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.44
-3.37
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-8
Sack EPA
-2.11
-1.49
Penalties
--
2
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-3.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
Texans+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-126
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,636
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-78.5
Home QB Adjustment
-89.4
Away QB Adjustment
-10.9
Market Regression
+8.2
Final Difference
-164.7
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.9
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-89.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
25
Yards / Game
6
6
Passing Yards / Game
10
10
Rushing Yards / Game
8
23
EPA
EPA / Play
3
19
EPA / Pass
8
28
EPA / Rush
13
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
17
Interceptions / Game
5
32
Fumbles / Game
16
31
Turnover EPA / Game
24
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
7
4th Down Efficiency
18
8
RZ Efficiency
8
32
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
10
Yards / Game
13
28
Passing Yards / Game
6
22
Rushing Yards / Game
20
28
EPA
EPA / Play
30
15
EPA / Pass
29
14
EPA / Rush
22
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
21
Interceptions / Game
28
10
Fumbles / Game
13
22
Turnover EPA / Game
3
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
27
4th Down Efficiency
26
2
RZ Efficiency
26
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U