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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ texans week 13, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NE logo
NEPatriots
8-3
34
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
31
HOUTexans
2-9
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
0
14
13
34
Texans
10
7
7
7
31

Spread

HOU logo
+7

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
453
385
Total Plays
69
59
Yards / Play
6.6
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.19
Passing Yards
365
264
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
15/30(50%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.12
Rushing Yards
88
121
Rush Attempts
27
28
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
28
19
Passing 1st downs
20
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
42%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.44
-3.37
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-8
Sack EPA
-2.11
-1.49
Penalties
--
2
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-3.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model70.8%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-120
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,631
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-78.5
Home QB Adjustment
-89.4
Away QB Adjustment
-10.9
Market Regression
+16.2
Final Difference
-153.9
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.9
Value
Ptile
09/12
-1.8
40
09/22
-0.9
45
09/29
4.7
82
10/06
-8.3
7
10/13
-3.6
27
10/20
-8.1
7
10/27
-6.4
13
11/03
10.4
96
11/18
3.2
72
11/24
6.7
89
C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-89.4
Value
Ptile
10/20
-0.9
45
11/03
8.7
93
11/10
0.7
55
11/17
-5.1
19
11/24
-7.3
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Patriots logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
2
25
Yards / Game
6
6
Passing Yards / Game
10
10
Rushing Yards / Game
8
23

EPA

EPA / Play
3
19
EPA / Pass
8
28
EPA / Rush
13
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
17
Interceptions / Game
5
32
Fumbles / Game
16
31
Turnover EPA / Game
24
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
7
4th Down Efficiency
18
8
RZ Efficiency
8
32
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Texans logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
31
10
Yards / Game
13
28
Passing Yards / Game
6
22
Rushing Yards / Game
20
28

EPA

EPA / Play
30
15
EPA / Pass
29
14
EPA / Rush
22
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
21
Interceptions / Game
28
10
Fumbles / Game
13
22
Turnover EPA / Game
3
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
27
4th Down Efficiency
26
2
RZ Efficiency
26
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
3
W
L
U
09/22
20
W
W
U
09/29
7
W
W
O
10/06
-7
L
L
U
10/13
3
W
W
O
10/20
-3
L
L
O
10/27
10
W
W
U
11/03
24
W
W
O
11/18
-4
L
L
U
11/24
3
W
W
O
HOU logo

Texans

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
6
W
L
O
09/22
-21
L
L
U
09/29
-3
L
L
O
10/06
-31
L
L
U
10/13
-25
L
L
O
10/20
-1
L
W
U
11/03
-3
L
L
O
11/10
-3
L
W
O
11/17
-5
L
L
O
11/24
-7
L
L
U