nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ texans week 17, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NE logo
NEPatriots
10-5
27
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
34
HOUTexans
8-7
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
6
1
7
21
Texans
7
0
0
21
28

Spread

NE logo
+7.5

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
317
439
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
5.4
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.09
Passing Yards
243
295
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.02
Rushing Yards
74
144
Rush Attempts
19
27
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.37
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
21
29
Passing 1st downs
14
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
40%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
7
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.74
-11.66
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-8
Sack EPA
-3.21
-1.92
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
55
35
Penalty EPA
-4.51
-3.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model64.6%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+17.5%
Cover Probability
61.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,650
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+11.8
Home QB Adjustment
+21.2
Away QB Adjustment
+9.4
Market Regression
-91.2
Final Difference
104.6
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
Value
Ptile
10/18
15.2
100
10/25
5.3
84
11/08
3.3
72
11/15
8.1
92
11/22
5.3
83
11/30
-2.1
38
12/06
4.8
81
12/13
-0.0
49
12/20
-2.8
32
12/27
10.5
98
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
Value
Ptile
10/18
8.8
94
10/25
4.1
76
11/01
0.2
51
11/08
4.4
79
11/23
1.9
63
11/29
3.1
70
12/06
-1.2
43
12/13
7.4
90
12/20
7.0
89
12/27
3.0
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Patriots logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
6
16
Yards / Game
4
14
Passing Yards / Game
17
16
Rushing Yards / Game
14
10

EPA

EPA / Play
6
16
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
11
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
15
21
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
11
30
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Texans logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
10
6
Yards / Game
5
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
18
Rushing Yards / Game
30
19

EPA

EPA / Play
9
10
EPA / Pass
6
14
EPA / Rush
29
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
29
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
25
27
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
19
4th Down Efficiency
4
14
RZ Efficiency
12
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
59
W
W
O
10/25
28
W
W
U
11/08
10
W
L
U
11/15
-1
L
P
O
11/22
17
W
W
P
11/30
-21
L
L
U
12/06
-1
L
L
U
12/13
10
W
L
U
12/20
7
W
W
U
12/27
28
W
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
11
W
W
U
10/25
3
W
P
O
11/01
21
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
W
U
11/23
-3
L
L
U
11/29
-8
L
L
O
12/06
-5
L
L
U
12/13
27
W
W
U
12/20
3
W
L
U
12/27
7
W
W
P