NEPatriots
10-5
27
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
034
HOUTexans
8-7
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
6
1
7
21
Texans
7
0
0
21
28
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
439
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
5.4
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.09
Passing Yards
243
295
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.02
Rushing Yards
74
144
Rush Attempts
19
27
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.37
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
29
Passing 1st downs
14
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
40%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
7
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.74
-11.66
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-8
Sack EPA
-3.21
-1.92
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
55
35
Penalty EPA
-4.51
-3.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
Patriots+7.5
Expected Value
+17.5%
Cover Probability
61.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-30
Home nfelo
1,536
Away nfelo
1,651
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+11.8
Home QB Adjustment
+21.2
Away QB Adjustment
+9.4
Market Regression
-88.1
Final Difference
109.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
16
Yards / Game
4
14
Passing Yards / Game
17
16
Rushing Yards / Game
14
10
EPA
EPA / Play
6
16
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
11
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
15
21
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
19
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
11
30
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
6
Yards / Game
5
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
18
Rushing Yards / Game
30
19
EPA
EPA / Play
9
10
EPA / Pass
6
14
EPA / Rush
29
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
29
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
25
27
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
19
4th Down Efficiency
4
14
RZ Efficiency
12
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U