NEPatriots
0-1
30
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
58°F
07
MINVikings
1-0
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
58°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
10
8
3
3
24
Vikings
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
217
Total Plays
59
61
Yards / Play
4.9
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.50
Passing Yards
142
163
Comp/Att
14/21(67%)
19/36(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.58
Rushing Yards
150
54
Rush Attempts
37
19
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
36%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-16.86
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-7
-39
Sack EPA
-1.51
-8.04
Penalties
15
7
Penalty Yards
163
58
Penalty EPA
-10.34
-6.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-38
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,592
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.3
Home QB Adjustment
-2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-4.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
11
Yards / Game
10
14
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
19
24
EPA
EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
4
18
EPA / Rush
5
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
5
Interceptions / Game
6
19
Fumbles / Game
3
27
Turnover EPA / Game
30
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
20
4th Down Efficiency
3
31
RZ Efficiency
5
18
Vikings Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
8
Yards / Game
26
12
Passing Yards / Game
26
21
Rushing Yards / Game
14
13
EPA
EPA / Play
18
9
EPA / Pass
24
11
EPA / Rush
2
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
28
Interceptions / Game
26
10
Fumbles / Game
1
23
Turnover EPA / Game
20
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
13
4th Down Efficiency
14
12
RZ Efficiency
13
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Vikings
5-4-1
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U