OAKRaiders
2-3
9
TBD
Candlestick Park
53°F
10 mph
17
SF49ers
0-5
TBD
Candlestick Park
53°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
3
0
3
9
49ers
0
3
7
7
17
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
179
349
Total Plays
53
66
Yards / Play
3.4
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.06
Passing Yards
69
191
Comp/Att
8/21(38%)
16/33(48%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.54
-0.02
Rushing Yards
110
158
Rush Attempts
30
31
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
17
Passing 1st downs
4
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
33%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.43
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-5
Sack EPA
-2.81
-1.84
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
60
143
Penalty EPA
-6.61
-11.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+156
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,378
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+13.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
16
Yards / Game
10
13
Passing Yards / Game
18
26
Rushing Yards / Game
2
6
EPA
EPA / Play
11
13
EPA / Pass
22
18
EPA / Rush
5
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
6
Interceptions / Game
16
17
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
26
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
17
4th Down Efficiency
22
1
RZ Efficiency
18
9
49ers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
20
Yards / Game
24
11
Passing Yards / Game
20
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
29
EPA
EPA / Play
24
19
EPA / Pass
23
11
EPA / Rush
15
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
6
Interceptions / Game
13
26
Fumbles / Game
3
22
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
6
4th Down Efficiency
12
2
RZ Efficiency
25
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
49ers
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U