OAKRaiders
2-1
20
TBD
Soldier Field
55°F
12 mph
22
CHIBears
0-3
TBD
Soldier Field
55°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
14
3
3
20
Bears
6
10
0
6
22
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
243
371
Total Plays
57
75
Yards / Play
4.3
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.05
Passing Yards
173
273
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
28/43(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.29
Rushing Yards
70
98
Rush Attempts
22
29
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.43
-0.58
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
46%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
6
10
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-11.62
-15.22
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-23
-8
Sack EPA
-3.42
-2.64
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
47
48
Penalty EPA
-0.53
-7.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model49.8%
Spread Pick
Bears+3.0
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,394
Away nfelo
1,405
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-9.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
+13.8
Market Regression
-12.2
Final Difference
1.5
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
20
Yards / Game
24
14
Passing Yards / Game
26
10
Rushing Yards / Game
28
22
EPA
EPA / Play
19
28
EPA / Pass
21
22
EPA / Rush
20
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
20
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
12
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
29
4th Down Efficiency
27
9
RZ Efficiency
8
22
Bears Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
22
Yards / Game
19
22
Passing Yards / Game
11
19
Rushing Yards / Game
11
13
EPA
EPA / Play
14
19
EPA / Pass
17
14
EPA / Rush
10
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
21
Interceptions / Game
11
15
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
18
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
5
19
RZ Efficiency
27
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Bears
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U