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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ bills week 8, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
3-4
14
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
7 mph
34
BUFBills
4-2
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
0
0
7
14
Bills
0
8
6
14
28

Spread

BUF logo
-2

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
367
331
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
5.8
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.17
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
31/49(63%)
20/27(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.27
Rushing Yards
54
166
Rush Attempts
14
37
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
17
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
30%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.31
+5.77
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
50
95
Penalty EPA
-6.39
-4.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+80
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+108.2
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+30.8
Net QB Adjustment
-17.3
Home QB Adjustment
-5.2
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-36.1
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Value
Ptile
12/04
2.8
71
12/08
-8.2
4
12/18
-2.8
28
12/24
5.1
83
09/10
2.9
73
09/17
7.3
91
09/24
-9.3
4
10/01
-2.7
34
10/15
-3.2
30
10/19
9.7
97
T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
Value
Ptile
12/04
-4.9
15
12/11
-4.2
18
12/18
2.0
64
12/24
9.2
96
09/10
0.2
53
09/17
-1.4
42
09/24
1.1
60
10/01
-3.4
28
10/08
-8.7
6
10/22
3.9
80

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Bills Defense
Raiders logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
22
16
Yards / Game
18
21
Passing Yards / Game
30
14
Rushing Yards / Game
25
29

EPA

EPA / Play
15
19
EPA / Pass
16
15
EPA / Rush
22
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
9
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
31
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
11
4th Down Efficiency
27
24
RZ Efficiency
8
16
Bills Offense vs Raiders Defense
Bills logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
27
20
Yards / Game
29
24
Passing Yards / Game
29
23
Rushing Yards / Game
5
11

EPA

EPA / Play
22
31
EPA / Pass
22
31
EPA / Rush
13
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
12
32
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
28
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
25
4th Down Efficiency
30
30
RZ Efficiency
22
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
8
W
W
O
01/01
-18
L
L
U
01/07
-13
L
L
O
09/10
10
W
W
U
09/17
25
W
W
O
09/24
-17
L
L
U
10/01
-6
L
L
U
10/08
-13
L
L
O
10/15
-1
L
L
U
10/19
1
W
W
O
BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-7
L
L
O
12/18
20
W
W
O
12/24
-3
L
L
O
01/01
-20
L
L
U
09/10
9
W
W
U
09/17
-6
L
W
U
09/24
10
W
W
O
10/01
6
W
W
U
10/08
-4
L
L
U
10/22
3
W
P
O