OAKRaiders
3-4
14
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
7 mph
34
BUFBills
4-2
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
0
0
7
14
Bills
0
8
6
14
28
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
331
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
5.8
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.17
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
31/49(63%)
20/27(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.27
Rushing Yards
54
166
Rush Attempts
14
37
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
17
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
30%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.31
+5.77
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
50
95
Penalty EPA
-6.39
-4.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+106.8
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
+30.4
Net QB Adjustment
-17.3
Home QB Adjustment
-5.2
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-36.1
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
16
Yards / Game
18
21
Passing Yards / Game
30
14
Rushing Yards / Game
25
29
EPA
EPA / Play
15
19
EPA / Pass
16
15
EPA / Rush
22
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
9
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
31
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
11
4th Down Efficiency
27
24
RZ Efficiency
8
16
Bills Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
20
Yards / Game
29
24
Passing Yards / Game
29
23
Rushing Yards / Game
5
11
EPA
EPA / Play
22
31
EPA / Pass
22
31
EPA / Rush
13
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
12
32
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
28
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
25
4th Down Efficiency
30
30
RZ Efficiency
22
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U