OAKRaiders
2-2
18
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
73°F
7 mph
34
DENBroncos
2-2
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
73°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
10
0
0
8
18
Broncos
0
7
7
14
28
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
36
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
289
Total Plays
66
58
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.05
Passing Yards
215
180
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.09
Rushing Yards
117
109
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
47%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-19.17
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-16
-26
Sack EPA
-4.06
-4.46
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
79
44
Penalty EPA
-7.11
-6.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+22
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+33.6
Base HFA
+46.2
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-6.3
Home QB Adjustment
-12.7
Away QB Adjustment
-6.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
B. Nix
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-12.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
3
Yards / Game
27
10
Passing Yards / Game
9
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
5
EPA
EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
32
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
29
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
29
13
Turnover EPA / Game
3
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
26
1
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
27
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
12
EPA
EPA / Play
12
12
EPA / Pass
16
26
EPA / Rush
15
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
9
Interceptions / Game
15
22
Fumbles / Game
12
31
Turnover EPA / Game
25
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
17
4th Down Efficiency
9
31
RZ Efficiency
8
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U