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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ broncos week 5, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
2-2
18
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
73°F
7 mph
34
DENBroncos
2-2
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
73°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
10
0
0
8
18
Broncos
0
7
7
14
28

Spread

DEN logo
-3

Total

OVER
36

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
332
289
Total Plays
66
58
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.22
+0.05
Passing Yards
215
180
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.09
Rushing Yards
117
109
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
47%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-19.17
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-16
-26
Sack EPA
-4.06
-4.46
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
79
44
Penalty EPA
-7.11
-6.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+24
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+33.6
Base HFA
+46.2
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-6.3
Home QB Adjustment
-12.7
Away QB Adjustment
-6.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Value
Ptile
12/03
2.1
64
12/10
-1.9
36
12/16
1.8
61
12/24
-9.3
4
12/31
0.1
50
01/06
-4.0
24
09/08
-2.0
34
09/15
-0.2
48
09/22
-2.1
34
09/29
-4.8
17
B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.7
Value
Ptile
09/08
-4.2
22
09/15
-4.4
20
09/22
4.8
79
09/29
-3.7
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Raiders logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
29
3
Yards / Game
27
10
Passing Yards / Game
9
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
5

EPA

EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
32
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
29
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
29
13
Turnover EPA / Game
3
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
26
1
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Broncos logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
27
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
12

EPA

EPA / Play
12
12
EPA / Pass
16
26
EPA / Rush
15
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
9
Interceptions / Game
15
22
Fumbles / Game
12
31
Turnover EPA / Game
25
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
17
4th Down Efficiency
9
31
RZ Efficiency
8
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
-14
L
L
O
12/10
-3
L
P
U
12/14
42
W
W
O
12/25
6
W
W
U
12/31
-3
L
W
O
01/07
13
W
W
O
09/08
-12
L
L
U
09/15
3
W
W
O
09/22
-14
L
L
O
09/29
4
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
-5
L
L
U
12/10
17
W
W
U
12/16
-25
L
L
O
12/24
-3
L
L
O
12/31
7
W
W
U
01/07
-13
L
L
O
09/08
-6
L
W
O
09/15
-7
L
L
U
09/22
19
W
W
U
09/29
1
W
W
U