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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ broncos week 7, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
2-4
59
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
63°F
9 mph
14
DENBroncos
2-4
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
63°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
18
14
21
0
53
Broncos
0
7
7
0
14

Spread

OAK logo
+7

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
508
240
Total Plays
74
50
Yards / Play
6.9
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.42
-0.45
Passing Yards
180
165
Comp/Att
12/20(60%)
12/29(41%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.65
-0.60
Rushing Yards
328
75
Rush Attempts
52
17
Yards / Rush
6.3
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.35
-0.52
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
29
11
Passing 1st downs
9
7
Rushing 1st downs
18
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
46%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
83%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
5
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-17.66
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-24
-33
Sack EPA
-4.14
-6.22
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
94
64
Penalty EPA
-7.55
-6.04

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model70.3%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+116
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,373
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.2
Home QB Adjustment
+21.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
-25.2
Final Difference
150.1
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

J. Campbell headshot

J. Campbell

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
Value
Ptile
11/22
0.2
52
11/29
2.1
65
12/06
11.2
98
12/13
1.5
59
12/21
-6.4
13
12/27
-4.6
21
01/03
6.1
86
09/12
-3.2
28
09/19
-6.5
11
10/17
-10.3
3
K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+21.0
Value
Ptile
12/13
3.2
71
12/20
0.4
53
12/27
1.8
62
01/03
0.1
50
09/12
-0.2
48
09/19
6.0
87
09/26
8.5
94
10/03
1.9
60
10/10
6.6
89
10/17
-0.2
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Raiders logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
5
32
Yards / Game
10
32
Passing Yards / Game
18
4
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31

EPA

EPA / Play
11
31
EPA / Pass
22
30
EPA / Rush
5
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
10
Interceptions / Game
16
31
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
26
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
18
26
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Broncos logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
19
20
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
5
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
29

EPA

EPA / Play
17
19
EPA / Pass
12
11
EPA / Rush
30
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
6
Interceptions / Game
7
26
Fumbles / Game
26
22
Turnover EPA / Game
16
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
30
2
RZ Efficiency
13
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-21
L
L
O
12/20
1
W
W
O
12/27
-14
L
L
U
01/03
-8
L
W
U
09/12
-25
L
L
O
09/19
2
W
L
U
09/26
-1
L
W
O
10/03
-7
L
L
O
10/10
8
W
W
O
10/17
-8
L
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-12
L
L
O
12/20
-1
L
L
O
12/27
-3
L
W
O
01/03
-20
L
L
O
09/12
-7
L
L
U
09/19
17
W
W
O
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
6
W
W
O
10/10
-14
L
L
O
10/17
-4
L
L
O