OAKRaiders
4-9
20
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
57°F
6 mph
19
DENBroncos
8-5
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
57°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
13
0
7
20
Broncos
6
0
10
3
19
Spread
+14
Total
OVER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
343
337
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
5.4
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.00
Passing Yards
102
257
Comp/Att
14/29(48%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.16
Rushing Yards
241
80
Rush Attempts
34
28
Yards / Rush
7.1
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
31%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.87
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-13
-21
Sack EPA
-1.03
-2.52
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
62
72
Penalty EPA
-13.35
-6.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model85.7%
Spread Pick
Raiders+14.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+245
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,338
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+26.9
Home QB Adjustment
+10.3
Away QB Adjustment
-16.6
Market Regression
+13.2
Final Difference
310.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
C. Frye
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-16.6
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
11
Yards / Game
31
7
Passing Yards / Game
26
4
Rushing Yards / Game
21
26
EPA
EPA / Play
29
12
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
22
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
14
Interceptions / Game
22
13
Fumbles / Game
32
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
12
4th Down Efficiency
18
15
RZ Efficiency
29
14
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
23
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
9
15
Rushing Yards / Game
18
29
EPA
EPA / Play
18
26
EPA / Pass
15
27
EPA / Rush
18
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
3
Interceptions / Game
7
31
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
20
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
28
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U