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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ broncos week 15, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
4-9
20
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
57°F
6 mph
19
DENBroncos
8-5
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
57°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
13
0
7
20
Broncos
6
0
10
3
19

Spread

OAK logo
+14

Total

OVER
37

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
343
337
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
5.4
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.00
Passing Yards
102
257
Comp/Att
14/29(48%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.16
Rushing Yards
241
80
Rush Attempts
34
28
Yards / Rush
7.1
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
31%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.87
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-13
-21
Sack EPA
-1.03
-2.52
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
62
72
Penalty EPA
-13.35
-6.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model85.7%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+14.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+245
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,338
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+26.9
Home QB Adjustment
+10.3
Away QB Adjustment
-16.6
Market Regression
+13.2
Final Difference
310.3
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

C. Frye headshot

C. Frye

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-16.6
Value
Ptile
10/22
-5.8
13
10/29
-2.3
34
11/05
-1.6
40
11/12
-0.4
48
11/19
-1.6
40
11/26
-11.5
2
12/03
2.0
64
12/31
1.0
56
09/09
-11.5
1
10/12
-4.3
19
K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Value
Ptile
09/27
0.6
54
10/04
2.5
66
10/11
6.0
86
10/19
4.2
77
11/01
-1.6
39
11/09
-5.7
16
11/15
4.3
78
11/26
0.5
53
12/06
-3.6
26
12/13
3.2
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Raiders logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
31
11
Yards / Game
31
7
Passing Yards / Game
26
4
Rushing Yards / Game
21
26

EPA

EPA / Play
29
12
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
22
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
14
Interceptions / Game
22
13
Fumbles / Game
32
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
12
4th Down Efficiency
18
15
RZ Efficiency
29
14
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Broncos logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
20
23
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
9
15
Rushing Yards / Game
18
29

EPA

EPA / Play
18
26
EPA / Pass
15
27
EPA / Rush
18
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
3
Interceptions / Game
7
31
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
20
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
28
RZ Efficiency
22
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-23
L
L
U
10/11
-37
L
L
O
10/18
4
W
W
U
10/25
-38
L
L
O
11/01
-8
L
W
U
11/15
-6
L
L
U
11/22
3
W
W
O
11/26
-17
L
L
U
12/06
3
W
W
O
12/13
-21
L
L
O
DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
7
W
W
U
10/11
3
W
W
U
10/19
11
W
W
O
11/01
-23
L
L
U
11/09
-18
L
L
U
11/15
-10
L
L
O
11/22
-29
L
L
U
11/26
20
W
W
U
12/06
31
W
W
O
12/13
-12
L
L
O