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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ broncos week 17, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
3-12
14
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
40°F
7 mph
47
DENBroncos
11-4
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
40°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
1
0
7
0
8
Broncos
10
10
10
11
41

Spread

DEN logo
-16

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
199
451
Total Plays
57
74
Yards / Play
3.5
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.37
+0.18
Passing Yards
132
309
Comp/Att
18/36(50%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.35
+0.24
Rushing Yards
67
142
Rush Attempts
18
34
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
10
25
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.54
-8.10
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-3
Sack EPA
-12.43
-0.94
Penalties
9
1
Penalty Yards
86
--
Penalty EPA
-8.12
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-16.0
Model
-16.0

Win Probability

Market89.8%
Model89.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+333
Home nfelo
1,690
Away nfelo
1,372
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.6
Home QB Adjustment
-19.2
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
+33.4
Final Difference
377.9
Model Spread
-16.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Value
Ptile
10/19
-3.3
28
10/26
1.2
59
11/02
-2.3
34
11/09
-1.0
43
11/16
-7.1
10
11/20
-2.5
32
11/30
-8.7
7
12/07
7.7
90
12/14
-5.8
16
12/21
1.6
62
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-19.2
Value
Ptile
10/19
10.1
96
10/23
7.6
90
11/02
3.9
77
11/09
8.0
91
11/16
-0.1
49
11/23
9.8
96
11/30
-1.4
40
12/07
-2.6
31
12/14
0.1
50
12/22
-3.1
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Raiders logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
31
17
Yards / Game
32
3
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2

EPA

EPA / Play
32
10
EPA / Pass
31
9
EPA / Rush
32
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
19
6
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
3
26
RZ Efficiency
1
25
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Broncos logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
4
32
Yards / Game
5
20
Passing Yards / Game
4
10
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22

EPA

EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
9
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
16
27
Fumbles / Game
5
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
14
4th Down Efficiency
17
13
RZ Efficiency
4
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-11
L
L
U
10/26
-10
L
L
U
11/02
-6
L
W
O
11/09
-24
L
L
O
11/16
-7
L
W
U
11/20
4
W
W
O
11/30
-52
L
L
O
12/07
11
W
W
U
12/14
-18
L
L
O
12/21
2
W
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
25
W
W
O
10/23
14
W
W
O
11/02
-22
L
L
O
11/09
24
W
W
O
11/16
-15
L
L
U
11/23
3
W
L
O
11/30
13
W
W
U
12/07
7
W
L
U
12/14
12
W
W
U
12/22
-9
L
L
O