OAKRaiders
3-12
14
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
40°F
7 mph
47
DENBroncos
11-4
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
40°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
1
0
7
0
8
Broncos
10
10
10
11
41
Spread
-16
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
199
451
Total Plays
57
74
Yards / Play
3.5
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.37
+0.18
Passing Yards
132
309
Comp/Att
18/36(50%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.35
+0.24
Rushing Yards
67
142
Rush Attempts
18
34
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
25
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.54
-8.10
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-26
-3
Sack EPA
-12.43
-0.94
Penalties
9
1
Penalty Yards
86
--
Penalty EPA
-8.12
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-16.0
Model
-16.0
Win Probability
Market89.8%
Model89.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+333
Home nfelo
1,690
Away nfelo
1,372
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.6
Home QB Adjustment
-19.2
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
+33.4
Final Difference
377.9
Model Spread
-16.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-19.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
17
Yards / Game
32
3
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2
EPA
EPA / Play
32
10
EPA / Pass
31
9
EPA / Rush
32
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
19
6
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
3
26
RZ Efficiency
1
25
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
32
Yards / Game
5
20
Passing Yards / Game
4
10
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22
EPA
EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
9
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
16
27
Fumbles / Game
5
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
14
4th Down Efficiency
17
13
RZ Efficiency
4
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U