OAKRaiders
12-3
6
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
45°F
9 mph
24
DENBroncos
8-7
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
45°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
0
6
0
6
Broncos
7
10
7
0
24
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
221
349
Total Plays
51
67
Yards / Play
4.3
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.53
-0.12
Passing Yards
164
--
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.54
+0.25
Rushing Yards
57
143
Rush Attempts
16
40
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.52
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
18
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
18%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-17.58
-2.50
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-8.53
--
Penalties
13
5
Penalty Yards
125
43
Penalty EPA
-12.82
-5.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model63.2%
Spread Pick
Broncos-1.0
Expected Value
+20.8%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+161
Home nfelo
1,536
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+136.2
Home QB Adjustment
+5.6
Away QB Adjustment
-130.6
Market Regression
-29.0
Final Difference
94.3
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. McGloin
Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-130.6
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
3
Yards / Game
10
4
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
6
28
EPA
EPA / Play
15
1
EPA / Pass
17
1
EPA / Rush
17
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
9
Interceptions / Game
9
14
Fumbles / Game
15
2
Turnover EPA / Game
26
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
5
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
13
9
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
20
Yards / Game
27
24
Passing Yards / Game
19
19
Rushing Yards / Game
27
23
EPA
EPA / Play
25
14
EPA / Pass
23
21
EPA / Rush
30
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
12
11
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
18
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
13
4th Down Efficiency
11
3
RZ Efficiency
27
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U