OAKRaiders
1-1
27
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
75°F
16 mph
20
CLEBrowns
1-1
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
75°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
14
3
7
27
Browns
0
3
7
10
20
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
469
355
Total Plays
62
68
Yards / Play
7.6
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.12
Passing Yards
--
316
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
28/49(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.19
Rushing Yards
155
39
Rush Attempts
30
14
Yards / Rush
5.2
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+0.59
-1.76
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-7.21
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
85
50
Penalty EPA
-9.87
-7.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model65.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+144
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,376
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-14.7
Home QB Adjustment
-9.9
Away QB Adjustment
+4.8
Market Regression
-3.3
Final Difference
109.9
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
29
Yards / Game
24
28
Passing Yards / Game
26
2
Rushing Yards / Game
28
30
EPA
EPA / Play
19
29
EPA / Pass
21
30
EPA / Rush
20
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
2
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
27
9
Turnover EPA / Game
12
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
21
4th Down Efficiency
27
27
RZ Efficiency
8
20
Browns Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
22
Yards / Game
26
22
Passing Yards / Game
12
19
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13
EPA
EPA / Play
29
19
EPA / Pass
28
14
EPA / Rush
18
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
21
Interceptions / Game
11
15
Fumbles / Game
31
15
Turnover EPA / Game
6
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
26
19
RZ Efficiency
32
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Browns
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U