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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ browns week 3, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
1-1
27
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
75°F
16 mph
20
CLEBrowns
1-1
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
75°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
14
3
7
27
Browns
0
3
7
10
20

Spread

OAK logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
469
355
Total Plays
62
68
Yards / Play
7.6
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.12
Passing Yards
--
316
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
28/49(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.19
Rushing Yards
155
39
Rush Attempts
30
14
Yards / Rush
5.2
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+0.59
-1.76
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-7.21
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
85
50
Penalty EPA
-9.87
-7.85

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model65.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+145
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,377
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-14.7
Home QB Adjustment
-9.9
Away QB Adjustment
+4.8
Market Regression
-3.1
Final Difference
110.4
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Value
Ptile
11/09
-1.0
43
11/16
-7.1
10
11/20
-2.5
32
11/30
-8.7
7
12/07
7.7
90
12/14
-5.8
16
12/21
1.6
62
12/28
-7.2
10
09/13
-4.1
20
09/20
8.0
94
J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
Value
Ptile
09/18
-9.4
4
11/09
-0.8
44
11/16
2.6
69
11/23
-6.8
11
11/30
-5.0
19
12/07
-7.8
8
12/14
-4.4
24
12/21
-13.2
1
12/28
-6.9
11
09/13
-3.2
27

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Browns Defense
Raiders logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
16
29
Yards / Game
24
28
Passing Yards / Game
26
2
Rushing Yards / Game
28
30

EPA

EPA / Play
19
29
EPA / Pass
21
30
EPA / Rush
20
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
2
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
27
9
Turnover EPA / Game
12
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
21
4th Down Efficiency
27
27
RZ Efficiency
8
20
Browns Offense vs Raiders Defense
Browns logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
30
22
Yards / Game
26
22
Passing Yards / Game
12
19
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13

EPA

EPA / Play
29
19
EPA / Pass
28
14
EPA / Rush
18
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
21
Interceptions / Game
11
15
Fumbles / Game
31
15
Turnover EPA / Game
6
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
26
19
RZ Efficiency
32
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
-24
L
L
O
11/16
-7
L
W
U
11/20
4
W
W
O
11/30
-52
L
L
O
12/07
11
W
W
U
12/14
-18
L
L
O
12/21
2
W
W
O
12/28
-33
L
L
O
09/13
-20
L
L
O
09/20
4
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
21
W
W
U
11/16
-16
L
L
U
11/23
2
W
W
O
11/30
-16
L
L
U
12/07
-1
L
W
U
12/14
-30
L
L
U
12/21
-4
L
W
U
12/28
-10
L
W
U
09/13
-21
L
L
O
09/20
14
W
W
O