OAKRaiders
0-6
13
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
55°F
20 mph
23
CLEBrowns
3-3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
55°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
6
0
7
13
Browns
6
3
0
14
23
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
387
306
Total Plays
81
54
Yards / Play
4.8
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.06
Passing Yards
311
267
Comp/Att
34/56(61%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
9.5
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.17
Rushing Yards
76
39
Rush Attempts
21
25
Yards / Rush
3.6
1.6
EPA / Rush
-0.49
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
32%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
19
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-14.13
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-17
-8
Sack EPA
-7.91
-2.15
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
54
--
Penalty EPA
-7.54
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,368
Home Field
+40.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-7.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+3.9
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
9
Yards / Game
32
22
Passing Yards / Game
29
17
Rushing Yards / Game
32
32
EPA
EPA / Play
32
8
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
32
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
3
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
11
4th Down Efficiency
3
29
RZ Efficiency
1
6
Browns Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
32
Yards / Game
23
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
10
Rushing Yards / Game
16
22
EPA
EPA / Play
27
25
EPA / Pass
22
27
EPA / Rush
23
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
19
27
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
14
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
23
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
3-7
SU
4-4-2
ATS
6-4
O/U