OAKRaiders
3-3
16
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
49°F
35 mph
6
CLEBrowns
5-2
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
49°F
35 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
6
0
10
16
Browns
0
3
3
0
6
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
309
223
Total Plays
71
47
Yards / Play
4.4
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.09
Passing Yards
100
--
Comp/Att
15/24(63%)
12/25(48%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.24
Rushing Yards
209
101
Rush Attempts
45
22
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
14
Passing 1st downs
7
5
Rushing 1st downs
15
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
57%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.14
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-3.25
--
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
25
59
Penalty EPA
-3.43
-5.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model53.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+61
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
-19.4
Home QB Adjustment
+4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+24.0
Market Regression
-40.8
Final Difference
24.6
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.0
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
8
21
Passing Yards / Game
18
24
Rushing Yards / Game
14
9
EPA
EPA / Play
11
22
EPA / Pass
14
23
EPA / Rush
12
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
28
Interceptions / Game
7
10
Fumbles / Game
32
8
Turnover EPA / Game
3
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
3
32
RZ Efficiency
23
16
Browns Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
30
Yards / Game
16
26
Passing Yards / Game
32
5
Rushing Yards / Game
4
23
EPA
EPA / Play
8
29
EPA / Pass
8
28
EPA / Rush
10
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
24
Interceptions / Game
4
23
Fumbles / Game
18
31
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
30
4th Down Efficiency
27
31
RZ Efficiency
4
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Browns
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U