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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ browns week 15, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
6-7
16
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
40°F
8 mph
14
CLEBrowns
7-6
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
40°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
3
0
6
16
Browns
0
0
7
7
14

Spread

CLE logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
328
236
Total Plays
65
54
Yards / Play
5.0
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.11
Passing Yards
230
--
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.07
Rushing Yards
98
89
Rush Attempts
25
24
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
20
13
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
46%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.31
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-6.43
--
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
64
61
Penalty EPA
-6.68
-5.86

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
+6.5
Current
-2.5
Model
+2.0

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model45.5%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
56.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+107
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+17.2
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-19.9
Net QB Adjustment
-16.3
Home QB Adjustment
-20.4
Away QB Adjustment
-4.1
Market Regression
-105.6
Final Difference
31.5
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
Value
Ptile
10/04
-3.9
25
10/10
-5.4
17
10/17
4.0
80
10/24
7.2
91
11/07
-1.4
42
11/14
0.7
58
11/21
-3.2
29
11/25
3.5
78
12/05
0.3
55
12/12
-2.1
37
N. Mullens headshot

N. Mullens

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-20.4
Value
Ptile
12/23
-1.4
36
12/30
-1.7
35
09/27
2.4
62
10/04
-5.6
13
11/05
0.1
47
11/15
-3.6
21
11/29
-1.2
36
12/07
3.9
72
12/13
-5.7
12
12/20
-4.6
17

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Browns Defense
Raiders logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
8
3
Passing Yards / Game
2
8
Rushing Yards / Game
28
11

EPA

EPA / Play
19
21
EPA / Pass
15
11
EPA / Rush
28
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
6
Interceptions / Game
17
17
Fumbles / Game
32
30
Turnover EPA / Game
11
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
14
4th Down Efficiency
7
27
RZ Efficiency
29
28
Browns Offense vs Raiders Defense
Browns logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
20
26
Yards / Game
18
14
Passing Yards / Game
28
11
Rushing Yards / Game
4
15

EPA

EPA / Play
20
28
EPA / Pass
22
28
EPA / Rush
4
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
11
Interceptions / Game
14
32
Fumbles / Game
20
26
Turnover EPA / Game
21
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
16
4th Down Efficiency
30
32
RZ Efficiency
12
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/10
-11
L
L
U
10/17
10
W
W
O
10/24
11
W
W
O
11/07
-7
L
L
U
11/14
-27
L
L
O
11/21
-19
L
L
U
11/25
3
W
W
O
12/05
-2
L
L
U
12/12
-39
L
L
O
CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
7
W
W
U
10/10
-5
L
L
O
10/17
-23
L
L
O
10/21
3
W
W
U
10/31
-5
L
L
U
11/07
25
W
W
O
11/14
-38
L
L
O
11/21
3
W
L
U
11/28
-6
L
L
U
12/12
2
W
L
O