OAKRaiders
5-9
9
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
6 mph
23
CLEBrowns
3-11
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
6
0
0
9
Browns
10
7
3
3
23
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
282
Total Plays
68
65
Yards / Play
5.7
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.01
Passing Yards
301
118
Comp/Att
26/45(58%)
8/17(47%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.19
Rushing Yards
88
164
Rush Attempts
19
46
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
16
6
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
23%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-16.17
-4.36
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-32
-3
Sack EPA
-5.51
-2.02
Penalties
13
6
Penalty Yards
126
64
Penalty EPA
-11.38
-5.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,328
Away nfelo
1,348
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-9.8
Home QB Adjustment
-24.4
Away QB Adjustment
-14.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Frye
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-14.6
D. Anderson
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-24.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
21
Yards / Game
31
31
Passing Yards / Game
26
28
Rushing Yards / Game
21
28
EPA
EPA / Play
29
24
EPA / Pass
30
29
EPA / Rush
22
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
23
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
32
28
Turnover EPA / Game
11
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
17
4th Down Efficiency
18
15
RZ Efficiency
29
4
Browns Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
23
Yards / Game
32
25
Passing Yards / Game
30
15
Rushing Yards / Game
8
29
EPA
EPA / Play
27
26
EPA / Pass
32
27
EPA / Rush
15
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
3
Interceptions / Game
22
31
Fumbles / Game
25
23
Turnover EPA / Game
6
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
28
RZ Efficiency
28
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U