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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ browns week 16, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
5-9
9
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
6 mph
23
CLEBrowns
3-11
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
6
0
0
9
Browns
10
7
3
3
23

Spread

CLE logo
-3

Total

UNDER
37

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
389
282
Total Plays
68
65
Yards / Play
5.7
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.01
Passing Yards
301
118
Comp/Att
26/45(58%)
8/17(47%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.19
Rushing Yards
88
164
Rush Attempts
19
46
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
16
6
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
23%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-16.17
-4.36
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-32
-3
Sack EPA
-5.51
-2.02
Penalties
13
6
Penalty Yards
126
64
Penalty EPA
-11.38
-5.19

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,325
Away nfelo
1,347
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-9.8
Home QB Adjustment
-24.4
Away QB Adjustment
-14.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Frye headshot

C. Frye

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-14.6
Value
Ptile
10/29
-2.3
34
11/05
-1.6
40
11/12
-0.4
48
11/19
-1.6
40
11/26
-11.5
2
12/03
2.0
64
12/31
1.0
56
09/09
-11.5
1
10/12
-4.3
19
12/20
-2.8
33
D. Anderson headshot

D. Anderson

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-24.4
Value
Ptile
10/13
6.8
90
10/19
-4.6
18
10/26
0.6
56
11/02
0.8
58
11/30
-4.8
17
10/04
0.1
51
10/11
-11.1
2
10/18
-6.3
13
10/25
-8.2
7
11/01
-8.3
7

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Browns Defense
Raiders logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
31
21
Yards / Game
31
31
Passing Yards / Game
26
28
Rushing Yards / Game
21
28

EPA

EPA / Play
29
24
EPA / Pass
30
29
EPA / Rush
22
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
23
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
32
28
Turnover EPA / Game
11
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
17
4th Down Efficiency
18
15
RZ Efficiency
29
4
Browns Offense vs Raiders Defense
Browns logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
29
23
Yards / Game
32
25
Passing Yards / Game
30
15
Rushing Yards / Game
8
29

EPA

EPA / Play
27
26
EPA / Pass
32
27
EPA / Rush
15
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
3
Interceptions / Game
22
31
Fumbles / Game
25
23
Turnover EPA / Game
6
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
28
RZ Efficiency
28
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-37
L
L
O
10/18
4
W
W
U
10/25
-38
L
L
O
11/01
-8
L
W
U
11/15
-6
L
L
U
11/22
3
W
W
O
11/26
-17
L
L
U
12/06
3
W
W
O
12/13
-21
L
L
O
12/20
1
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
3
W
W
U
10/18
-13
L
W
O
10/25
-28
L
L
U
11/01
-24
L
L
U
11/16
-16
L
L
U
11/22
-1
L
W
O
11/29
-9
L
W
U
12/06
-7
L
W
O
12/10
7
W
W
U
12/20
7
W
W
O