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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ buccaneers week 8, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
5-2
30
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
86°F
15 mph
24
TBBuccaneers
3-3
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
86°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Raiders
0
3
14
7
6
30
Buccaneers
3
7
0
14
0
24

Spread

OAK logo
+0

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
626
272
Total Plays
85
62
Yards / Play
7.4
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.03
Passing Yards
498
170
Comp/Att
40/59(68%)
16/33(48%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.03
Rushing Yards
128
102
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
27
18
Passing 1st downs
19
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
6
3rd Down %
39%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.39
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-12
Sack EPA
-5.46
-2.73
Penalties
23
6
Penalty Yards
200
64
Penalty EPA
-20.13
-12.06

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-0
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+89.4
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.3
Net QB Adjustment
-15.0
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+14.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.5
Value
Ptile
12/20
-2.2
34
12/24
-2.9
29
01/03
-5.3
13
09/11
4.0
78
09/18
8.5
94
09/25
-1.4
37
10/02
7.0
90
10/09
1.2
58
10/16
-0.8
43
10/23
0.2
51
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Value
Ptile
12/13
-2.3
34
12/17
3.8
78
12/27
-0.2
49
01/03
0.4
52
09/11
6.6
88
09/18
-10.7
2
09/25
5.9
86
10/02
-8.3
4
10/10
-0.7
43
10/23
2.5
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Raiders logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
15
Yards / Game
10
22
Passing Yards / Game
26
20
Rushing Yards / Game
6
22

EPA

EPA / Play
15
12
EPA / Pass
17
10
EPA / Rush
17
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
16
Interceptions / Game
9
4
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
26
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
1
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
13
24
Buccaneers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Buccaneers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
18
20
Yards / Game
18
24
Passing Yards / Game
13
19
Rushing Yards / Game
25
23

EPA

EPA / Play
18
14
EPA / Pass
9
21
EPA / Rush
28
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
31
Interceptions / Game
27
11
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
13
4th Down Efficiency
22
3
RZ Efficiency
21
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
-10
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
L
U
01/03
-6
L
W
U
09/11
1
W
W
O
09/18
-7
L
L
O
09/25
7
W
W
U
10/02
1
W
W
O
10/09
3
W
L
O
10/16
-16
L
L
U
10/23
17
W
W
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-7
L
L
U
12/17
-8
L
L
O
12/27
-5
L
L
O
01/03
-28
L
L
O
09/11
7
W
W
O
09/18
-33
L
L
U
09/25
-5
L
L
O
10/02
-20
L
L
U
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/23
17
W
W
O